The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) is now beginning to set up as we enter October, and a significant winter storm may be a part of this equation.
A strong winter storm is projected to develop in the Plains in the next few days, and it is very possible this storm system is factored into the LRC. The whole concept of the LRC is that a recurring pattern develops between October 1 and the middle of November that then repeats for the heavy majority of the following 12 months. Now that we are entering the month of October, it's time to start looking for pieces of the LRC that may cycle in the next ~12 months. One significant piece of the LRC could be this major storm. Considering the storm will happen on October 5th, it's possible we see this storm happen again a few times over the winter.
A few things before the excitement grows: The LRC varies with the storm's strength, precipitation amount and various other factors. This could be a weak storm when it happens again in late-ish November, or it could be strong again. The track could also be relatively different- rather than going through the upper Plains, it might go through the Midwest, or even north into Canada. However, the jet stream drops south each winter, and this should affect the storm track. Just how much it affects the storm track is to be determined.
In the long range, the general consensus is that high pressure will dominate the Central and East US, with a very stormy pattern across the Southwest and general West US. This will lead to a period of above normal temperatures for the regions east of the Mississippi River, but this should last for a few days, at most per the latest forecasts. After the ridging begins to weaken and shift away from the East US, model guidance becomes too variable, so we cannot estimate what will happen beyond that. But the point is, already, it looks like this winter will contain some temperature swings, at least for a portion of the LRC.
Andrew
A few things before the excitement grows: The LRC varies with the storm's strength, precipitation amount and various other factors. This could be a weak storm when it happens again in late-ish November, or it could be strong again. The track could also be relatively different- rather than going through the upper Plains, it might go through the Midwest, or even north into Canada. However, the jet stream drops south each winter, and this should affect the storm track. Just how much it affects the storm track is to be determined.
Andrew
5 comments:
Sorry this is off topic but when will NJ see a significant cool down? It's supposed to be 83 this whole week. When will we have permanent cold weather and actually feel like fall?
Will this mean that the east will have a warm spell around late November, and then sometime in January
Honest question. Is there any scientific evidence that supports the idea that the LRC can be used in weather forecasting? I have seen a few people really use the LRC over the past couple of years, but when I search the internet for images/data supporting the LRC, not much really shows up. I would think that if a pattern sets up in the fall and continues on a somewhat regular cycle into the winter, spring, and summer, then there would be loads of images and supporting data on the internet. I have nothing against the theory of the LRC, but it doesn't seem like a far fetched idea that the pattern over the US could look similar every month or two and it be nothing more than a coincidence. Do you believe without a doubt that the LRC exists and is a tool that can (and should) be used by the weather community?
data would indicate that there will be warm periods in Nov, Dec, and January for us here in North Carolina......looks as tho there will be periods of very warm temps....
Nice to see someone talk about the LRC...I watch Lezak nightly and although I don't always think the LRC is perfectly sound it is often hard to refute the evidence.
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