2010-2011 Winter Storm Track

2010-2011 Winter Storm Track

All tracks are from Left to Right.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast Update (USA)

Hello everyone. This is a brief update to the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for the USA.

All indications are that the AO index will dive negative. This spells a snowy time for the Great Lakes area and cold, smack on. However, we are focusing on a long range forecast.

A certain website is indicating that the Great Lakes area will not receive heavy snow. I highly doubt that. They indicate less Ohio Valley precip. Ohio Valley WILL get more precip. The Great Lakes WILL get more precip. However, this certain site is indicating that the ice storm risk is significantly increased.

I will consider the potential for temperature swings and jet stream shifts that will probably bring an ice storm or two.

A positive PNA and negative AO indexes will spell a very intense winter. So how is this year's PNA shaping up?

This year's PNA for the next 14 days looks like negative turning positive.

The next 14 day AO certainly will turn negative.

This likely means a possibly moderately snowy period over the next 2 weeks.

Long range? Hard to tell, but with many indications showing not just the Ohio valley in a snow threat this la nina year, I think the AO will be negative.

The PNA, when positive, means a stormy and cold time in the Midwest.

Midwest snowstorm tallies (from the NWS)

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME  ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------  11.00   EDEN PRAIRIE             MN  HENNEPIN         1030 AM  11.00   1 SSW WYOMING            MN  CHISAGO          0400 PM  10.10   NEW HOPE                 MN  HENNEPIN         0102 PM  10.00   MONTGOMERY               MN  LE SUEUR         1130 AM                  STILL SNOWING.  10.00   3 N FOREST LAKE          MN  CHISAGO          0104 PM                  SO FAR  10.00   SW BURNSVILLE            MN  DAKOTA           0216 PM   9.80   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0510 PM   9.50   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0258 PM   9.40   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0445 PM   9.40   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0510 PM   9.20   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0605 PM   9.00   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         1243 PM                  STORM TOTAL SO FAR   9.00   CHISAGO CITY             MN  CHISAGO          0301 PM   8.90   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            1239 PM   8.60   MADELIA                  MN  WATONWAN         1025 AM   8.50   1 SE CHASKA              MN  CARVER           0112 PM   8.50   EDINA                    MN  HENNEPIN         0505 PM   8.30   5 SE ELK RIVER           MN  ANOKA            0148 PM   8.20   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0426 PM                  TOTAL SO FAR   8.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        1010 AM                  STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.   7.50   2 ESE MINNETONKA         MN  HENNEPIN         1115 AM                  GLEN LAKE AREA.   7.30   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         1248 PM   7.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           0150 PM   7.00   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0335 PM   6.80   2 NNE RUSH CITY          MN  CHISAGO          1030 AM   6.50   1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH  MN  DAKOTA           1115 AM   6.50   2 SSW CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           1239 PM   6.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0505 PM   6.20   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0505 PM   6.00   JANESVILLE               MN  WASECA           1027 AM   6.00   5 S FARMINGTON           MN  DAKOTA           0505 PM   5.50   LEWISVILLE               MN  WATONWAN         1015 AM                  STILL SNOWING.   5.40   CHAMPLIN                 MN  HENNEPIN         0335 PM   5.00   1 E CUMBERLAND           WI  BARRON           0205 PM   4.70   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          1245 PM   4.50   2 N ELKO                 MN  SCOTT            0139 PM                  IN PAST 6 HOURS...7.5 ON GROUND   4.00   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             1230 PM                  FOUR INCH BRANCH DOWN DUE TO WEIGHT OF SNOW.                  LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING AT TIMES.   4.00   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          0211 PM   3.80   11 NE WARMAN             MN  KANABEC          0150 PM                  STILL SNOWING.   3.00   1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH  MN  DAKOTA           1237 PM                  SNOW DEPTH 8.5   3.00   WNW FARIBAULT            MN  RICE             0112 PM   1.70   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0313 PM   1.00   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0130 PM                  MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

November 12th 2010 Winter Storm Set-up Upper Midwest

This is the Official Winter Briefing for the Upper Midwest winter storm.

Below is our first graphic from the National Weather Service. We can see how heavy the snow is. The pink areas are heaviest, and lesser amounts in purple.

Below is the National graphic for today from the HPC; part of the NOAA. We can see the low pressure is right there, providing the energy. I'll be honest, this is possible snow day material, and definitely snow fort material.

Below is the chance today for 4 inches of snow or more from the HPC. The red means likely 4 inches, maybe 5. The green area is probably a max of 4 inches, and blue people can expect a max of 3 inches.

Below is a HPC graphic of 8 inches or more. In the green areas, I would expect about 6 inches. In the blue, I would expect 4 inches, 5 max.

So, as a wrap-up, this storm will produce possibly significant accumulations in Duluth. This is the only briefing.

2010-2011 Winter Update 11/6

To clear up questions, this La Nina is expected to be a REGULAR La nina. Other reports had thought of a irregular La Nina. However, it is currently following its track as expected based on comparisons from similar years of La Nina.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast Part 1

Arctic Oscillation 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

ARCTIC OSCILLATION

(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,

or CPC. You guys rock!)

For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.

The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on

e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, anddefinitely warmer down south.

However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n

orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.

I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.

PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION

Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.

ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION

No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.

LA NINA

La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.

Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.

2010-2011 USA Winter Forecast 3rd version

Hello everyone. This is the official 2010-2011 Winter Forecast, the 3rd version for the USA.

This will replace the 2nd version on the USA Winter page.

Our first area, the Northwest, is not revised too much. We still expect it to be a stormy winter with not much in the way of snow. Much more rain. However, in addition to the snow in the mountains, areas relatively in or close to mountains should expect some snow and even sleet at times.

I Expect much flooding in these areas as well.

This area, the Great Lakes, was not changed too much. I revised the lake effect snow to put more areas within its boundaries. I am confident that this was a very true revision that needed to be made. The Heaviest Snow zone remains the same, but i do expect some conflict out west with the Lake effect snow and the Icy Zone. I expect a bit more ice in the lake zone out west, with still increased snow.

Everyone else in the Heaviest Snow zone should still prepare for a very harsh winter.

For people in the Dakotas, i lessened the range of the Heaviest Snow range and pulled it back. I also added a bit more range into the Icy Zone out west as well.

In our last area, I made quite a few revisions. I boosted up the Icy Zone range into New England in the southern area. The orange area means the Heaviest Snow zone. I extended it into this area because of the Canadian winter snow forecast. It expects heavy snow in areas like this. So, I modified it for that situation. Temperature swings still expected in the Icy Zone, probably affecting all of New England in the process.

For our summary, I did expand the Dry and Warm zone a bit farther into the Carolinas. The Icy Zone was brought up to New England, and Even a bit on the Northwest was expanded out towards the east. The Heaviest snow zone was drawn back a bit out of the Dakotas. Alaska was officially stated as 'Very Cold', especially in early 2011. Potentially tornadic situation setting up in the East Texas area to Florida region. Thanks for viewing this.

A 4th version MAY come out. If it does, do not expect big revisions.

Thanks for viewing this!!

2010-2011 Europe Winter Forecast

(Updated November 2nd, 2010)

Hello everyone. This is the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for Europe. This graphic by Accuweather.

So, as we can see, much of Europe will get a well deserved break. Some of the areas up north were blasted last year over and over again. This year, the blasting stops...for you guys. For the Southern Europeans, the Worst of the winter will flush into the area, with Bitter cold and Heavy snow. yes, Snowday material. I predict potentially record breaking snowfalls in the center and north of the 'worst of winter' area.

So, what does Northern Europe get this year? I predict, based on this graphic, that North Europe will get a milder winter with not as much snow. I do anticipate some heavy snowstorms, but not as many as last year. Maybe even a few temperature swings. But nothing in the way of any superstorms. Again, the probability of a few snowstorms is high. But several like last year is looking more and more bleak.

Out in Western Europe is the colder areas. Not the worst cold, but still cold. Not anticipating the worst snow, but maybe a bit above average or just on average. I predict maybe a couple days where the records for temperature could be broken, emphasize COULD.

In conclusion, South Europe will get cold. Southeast Europe will get the harsh hand of winter, while the West part gets chilly. Up North, the entire area gets a break from the terrible winter from last year. Not as cold, and not as snowy.

Thanks for viewing the 2010-2011 Europe Winter Forecast. This will be the ONLY Europe forecast unless any major changes are made. Below is MY summary for this winter.

2010-2011 Canada Winter Forecast

(Updated November 2nd, 2010)

Hello all! Today we will be reviewing the Canadian winter this year. Thanks to Accuweather for providing information.

Let's focus in on the Southern portion of Canada. The populated regions, such as Toronto, are in store for above average snow. Other areas to the west will also recieve aboveaverage snow. In some areas, the above average will turn to heaviest snow range. I got a graphic from Accuweather.com for their look on the forecast.

Accuweather is a reliable resource. However, I'm going to argue that the area lining the New York-Ohio area will also be in the Much Above range. As you can see, in the middle, there will be near normal conditions. Slightly below? Slightly above? Nope, just normal. Even the Northern US Plains is on track for a normal winter.

Also in the southern Canada regions we see some Below Normal snowfall. That is not something I'm going to argue with, particularly due to the fact there is nothing to argueabout against this.

In US Alaska, Much below normal snowfall. Sorry kids, notmany snowdays this year, if any.

Focusing now to Northern Canada, we'll start off with the... well, there's only one thing to say about it. The entire Northern Canada area will either be normal, below normal, or much below normal. The below normal areas reside off the East coast of Canada, as well as up north by Denmark. Or Greenland. Whichever you prefer. Below is MY snowfall map.

Temperatures

---------------

Let's start off with the most surprising fact: The same area in the Much Above snowfall is in the Above Normal temperatures! Why?? Because Canada is colder than the US. Don't worry, Northern US kids, my forecast will stay the same despite this. I am expecting temperature swings in Canada due to the Above Normal snowfall.

Turning to the East Coast, we see bits and pieces of above normal temperatures. No arguments there.

Up by Alaska, Much Below normal temperatures. And, seeing as how cold it can get, well, let's just say that frostbite'll be as common as the common cold. The areas surrounding Alaska bathed in Below Normal temperatures, likely caused by polar winds shifting to allow absolutely frigid air to sweep through.

Thanks for viewing the 2010-2011 Canada Winter Forecast. This will be the ONLY forecast for Canada unless there are major changes.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast 2nd version

Hello everyone! This is the second version of the official winter forecast made by the Weather Centre.

Credits: NOAA, NWS

ACCUWEATHER

All sloppy-looking graphics made by me.

So, let's begin...well, it's hard to begin anywhe

re! There's so much to say!

So I guess we'll start off with the most important.

NORTHERN HALF OF U.S.

Okay, let's start off with our Northerners of the U.S. Obviously, last year, our Northern

Midwest folks had less than average snow

and a bit of warmth. Of course, the memorable in the New England area. So, let's start with the New England area.

NEW ENGLAND

For our Snowicane victims, do not fear this winter. Your snow will not be nearly as bad as last year. I know, big relief. How ever, we will deal with bitter cold in the northern half of New England. Average or slightly above average snow will occur in the majority of New England. In the southernmost area of New England, it is an increased risk for ice storms. We will call this area the 'ICY ZONE'.

In the Icy Zone, people will experience large temperature swings. Rain, snow, and sleet with freezing rain will accompany storms with these temperature swings. Snow will accompany the area shaded in blue. In that area, labeled the Cold/Average Snow zone, people will experience bitter cold. In addition, average snow will happen, possibly slightly above average.

GREAT LAKES

In the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will not go away. It is unknow

n what wil

l happen in many of the lakes. However, Lake Michigan, having warmer than normal waters at this time, will produce more lake effect snow.

The below graphic will mention the areas and list the effects this winter.

Cities such as Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago will be getting the heaviest snow.

The pink area is the Icy Zone.

The dark blue area, of course, is the heaviest snow. By this, NOAA and Accuweather have identified it as unsure, but Accuweather is confident that the area will get a lot of snow.

(Joe Bastardi, Chief Long-Range Forecaster, Accuweather: "...Heck of a lot of snow this winter.")

The NOAA, on the other hand, will only identify the Chicago and Detroit areas as 'Above Average', with little or no mention of Minneapolis. In addition, the Great Lakes and anyone else in the 'Heaviest Snow' area will be under an increased ice risk. So it's almost like a double-whammy for the folks up north.

NORTHWEST

The Northwest is in for quite a wild winter. This winter will feature wet, soggy conditions in cities such as Spokane, Washington and Seattle, Washington. Thunderstorms and rain, not snow, will occur in those areas. Sorry, kids. Not much for snowdays.

However, if you live in the Mountains, snow will occur there. Thus above average snow should occur in the mountains. In the graphic below, it explains.

Snow will occur in the mountains, but rainy conditions in all areas.

SOUTHERN HALF U.S.

Not much winter will come to the South. Because of that, a graphic will not be displayed.

Dry conditions will happen across the south with severedroughts expected.

Warm temperatures will happen as well.

SUMMARY:

Heaviest snow across the Great Lakes into New England. Icy Zone through the Nation's Midsection. Dry and warm down in the South. Wet and soggy out Northwest, with snowy mountains. Temperature swings in the Icy Zone and Heaviest Snow; more in the Icy Zone. Possible tornadic situation in the Southeast this winter. (If storms like that are propelled upward, it spells snow, rain, and ice.). Extra Lake effect snow from Lake Michigan. Bitterly cold in Alaska.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION

(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,

or CPC. You guys rock!)

For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.

The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on

e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, and definitely warmer down south.

However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n

orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.

I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.

PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION

Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.

ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION

No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.

LA NINA

La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.

Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.

Thanks for viewing

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Alaska

Hello all. Here, we will discuss our final piece: Alaska.

Alaska will contain bitterly cold temperatures. That's saying something, considering Alaska get's frigid already. Dangerous cold may be in Alaska every day.

Alaska should have normal precipitation, maybe a little more snow.

The above image is from Accuweather.

That's all for focusing in on the pieces.
Thanks for viewing, and keep tuned into the Weather Centre.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: South US

Good evening everyone! Hope you're having a splendid night. This is our last Lower 48 states piece, where we will focus in on the South.

Not much of any snow will come to the South this winter. To many, it will almost seem like an extended spring. Rain will still be there.

Temperatures will be warm throughout the entire Southern Half.

A note to be aware of: The area from Texas eastward may experience an active tornado season. However, only one forecast has shown this.

That's just about it.
Next, our piece will be the Alaskans.
Good evening to all.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Soggy and Wet Pacific Northwest.

Good evening everyone. Tonight, we'll hone in on our wet friends in the Pacific Northwest. This piece will be short and sweet.

Everyone in the Pacific Northwest NOT living in mountains will recieve a milder, certainly wetter winter. Storms in abundance, but not much for snow. Flooding could certainly be an issue.

For people living in the mountains, you've got LOADS of snow to come. All that rain down by the lower folks? That's gonna be a nice snow. Intense winter storms will be plentiful in the Rocky Mountains in the Pacific Northwest this winter.

That's about all there is to the Pacific Northwest winter.
Soggy, wet down low.
Very snowy up in the moutains.

Our last piece will be the South, posted next.
Have a good evening.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Heaviest Snow zone

Hello everyone. Here, we'll focus in on the much-anticipated Heaviest Snow zone. If it lives up to its name, those shovels will be pretty beaten up by the end.

States such as North Illinois, all of Wisconsin, Minnesota, into the Eastern Dakotas and Northeast Nebraska. The range includes Michigan into New York, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire. All of these states are within the range that should contain the country's worst snow.

Temperature wise, the temps should be normal. However, states such as Illinois, Indiana and Ohio may recieve slightly above average temperatures this winter. Not too much of an obstacle for snow.

States in the Heaviest Snow zone, whether near the border or not, will be able to recieve heavy snow. However, states near the border may recieve a little less and more wet snow. The states a good distance away from the border should have a little more snow, and a little less wet due to decreased amount of temperature swings and proximity to the cold Canadian air reserves.

While these predictions are indeed far off, Accuweather (a main source of winter information), will release more editions of the winter forecasts, as well as another site that will not be named.

Thanks for viewing. The next zone we'll investigate will be our Pacific Northwest.
Tune in for that one!

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: Icy Zone

Hello everyone! This time, we'll be focusing in on the 'Icy Zone' mentioned in the first official post.

Now, this is a crucial zone in this winter. It is possibly the most dangerous section of this winter.
The Icy Zone is aptly named- It will contain at least a few ice storms. Whenever there's ice storms, there's school closings. So kids in Lower New England through the nation's midsection across most of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, South Dakota and Missouri can expect a snowday or two.

The Icy Zone will have extremely intense temperature swings. This is due to the warm and cold air masses colliding, hence the Icy Zone name. To many kids, it would seem like the Icy Zone is the best place to be for snowdays. You are pretty much incorrect. If you're well inside the Heaviest Snow zone, you can expect more snowdays than the Icy Zone. If you're close to the border of the Icy Zone and still inside the Heaviest Snow, you can expect abundant snow and licks of warm and cold at times.

Travelers beware- The Icy Zone will be an absolute nightmare, when -Not IF; WHEN- ice storms arrive. Thus, schools will close. Going back to the weather, temperatures in the 60s will happen, as well as temperatures in the 20s at times.

Thank you for viewing. Our Next post will be about the Heaviest Snow zone. Be sure to tune in for that.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast by Accuweather and NOAA

Accuweather and NOAA have released their winter forecast, which have similarities:

-Warm and dry down south
-Slightly warmer in the Midwest.
-More Precipitation across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northern New England.
-Stormy out Northwest.

However, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting nearly the opposite.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast 1st version: 2nd update

Edits:

-Will extend Heaviest snow area until border or Iowa and Nebraska, South Dakota.

-Heavy mountain snow chances increase in Pacific Northwest.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast: La Nina Evidence: Seasonal