February 1st-2nd In-Depth Analysis

This is a special in-depth Analysis for the February 1st-2nd winter storm.

This is a very in-depth, and long, analysis, so you can zoom down to find a summary. However, the most detailed information will be found throughout the analysis itself.

We're going to hit it right off with an image from the Climate Prediction Center. This is a map issued today, outlining the projected hazards over the next week or so.

We can see a band of heavy snow extending from the Central Plains back through the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes into New England. A line of icy conditions in the same period will be in the Oklahoma area extending through the Southern Midwest and into extreme south portions of the Northeast.

A heavy rain period in the same time frame will be over the South-Central US and portions of the Southeast US.

This storm will be so significant, the entire east US will likely be affected by this storm. It is projected to be very strong.

The Heavy Snow band outlined above is an area I want to highlight. Due to how strong this storm could be, snow totals may exceed 6'' in many places, possibly touching 12''.

The Heavy rain area will be a benefit for drought conditions, which may improve.

But the most concern is the icy strip in the central US. In the below map made by The Weather Centre, I outline a new map, the Danger Map.

While the above image isn't set in stone, there is certainly a risk for danger for ice in the South Midwest to the Southern Plains and the South Central US. Parts of the the Northeast will also be in the ice danger risk at this time.

The heavy snow risk, while not as dangerous, is still a hazard. I predict that the heaviest totals may occur there, with isolated/scattered totals of 10-14'' of snow. Again, this is a far way out and is subject to change.

Below is the expected precipitation map from The Weather Centre.

I did stretch out the moderate snow areas on this precipitation map but drew back the heavier snow areas. I included the icy conditions where ice should be the most dominant precipitation.

Rain will be in place across most of the East US, but the heaviest may be north of the Gulf coast, where the drought is not as severe.

However, these will all be junk if the storm track changes. So, without further ado, I give you a preliminary look at the expected storm track for this storm.

Please realize, and I emphasize this, the storm track is a track that I have been the LEAST sure of in all my days of forecasting.

You can see how big the uncertainty area is as soon as the low gets to the South Central US.

You can take your own opinion on this, but I would take something around the line I outlined.

The track is comprised out of all the major models. Below is a VERY PRELIMINARY snow forecast for this storm.

While these totals are subject to change, I am confident in, at least, a 1-2'' range in the 2-5'' area on the map. After that, confidence drops off rapidly.

Again, returning to the main concern, is freezing rain and sleet, which comes to the risk of icing. This is a VERY PRELIMINARY IceCAST below.

I have outlined an area of severe icing potential as well as a potential for up to .25'' of ice.

I heavily stress that if you are in the danger of severe icing area, PLEASE keep up to date on all weather updates. Whether from The Weather Centre or somewhere else. This could be deadly in those areas.

Summary: Severe icing could occur in the Central Plains west to the East Coast. Heavy Snow is possible north and heavy rain south.

January Long-Range Forecast

Good evening all, and welcome to the first long-range forecast of this blog. You can find it under the label 'Long Range Forecasts'.

So, for January, since it is winter, I am predicting the arctic air that is currently over the US will recede a bit so the South will get a break. However, I do expect that arctic air to plunge south a few times this month.

The warmth will be confined mostly south, but I wouldn't be surprised if the North US saw some spells of 40's like New Years Day.

The Greenland Block may set up, that's a more tricky estimate.

Revised MW/GL/Plains SnowMap

MIDWEEK CLIPPER THREATENS MIDWEST

Indications of 2-4'' is Great Lakes areas

This is your Short Range Forecaster for the Weather Centre here to deliver the newly produced SnowMap. What these snows are a product of are actually a stalling clipper way up in Canada. But it will likely produced a prolonged impact upon some cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest. While this SnowMap highlights the main potential for hard hit areas, the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and a majority of the Midwest will likely receive at least a dusting. The next SnowMap will likely come out either tonight or tomorrow. For updates, the Snowfall Centre is always open, and the Snow Bulletin has just been updated. Stay tuned.

Long Range Ensemble Run, Long Range GFS run

This is a combined post of an ensemble run into 14 days from now and the GFS, both usual and long-range modes.

We'll start off with the ensembles. And boy are there a lot.
Going into the first two days, all the ensembles show a low coming onshore from the Northwest weakening as it does so. With all the members approving of this, I will approve as well.

In the following two days, some models take the low strengthening in Canada and others show it to stay disorganized. In all cases, a cold front forms a squall line starting in Canada and extending through Madison, Chicago. What really surprised me though, was how, in just one ensemble, there was a tight area of low pressure right centred in the North Illinois area. However, since it is just one ensemble, I will not worry much about it, but will watch it.

In the 4-6 day range, right away in day 4, 9 out of the 12 ensembles report a well defined area of low pressure in the Canada region. Additionally, some of the members keep the squall line of precip moving quicker than the others.
Continuing on in the same 4-6 day range, then 4 ensembles reported a low pressure centred in the Canada region above the Great Lakes. One member even took it out farther into Canada. By now, the squall line is taking different shapes with different members. 2 ensembles already have the squall line off shore while everyone else is moving along around the Carolinas north and south in a roughly defined line.
Still in the 5 day area, all but one member of the 12 ensembles are reporting the squall line moving out. They are also differing on the placement of a low pressure. One puts it above the Great Lakes in Canada, while another puts the same area in the clear. From now on this'll be a wild ride. A couple members even have the low breaking off into two weaker lows.
Finally, as the 4-6 day range ends, the members have taken the squall line away and put lows in Canada anywhere from East to Central Canada regions.

For the 6-10 day region, the models will likely by hugely different. By now, all models have the squall line far out to sea. But the lows are still all over the place. Even the thickness levels vary by a lot of miles.
Moving 12 hours on, nearly all the models are showing yet another squall line possibly begin to form. The Great Lakes and the Texas-Louisiana regions are the first to start off. Right now, the Great Lakes precip is a toss-up, likely landing on a rain/ice mix. Or a Snow/ice mix. Again, thicknesses are all over the place. The models have taken their own opinions.
12 hours later, the supposed squall line has not formed. The Great Lakes region is petty much half and half on whether it's precip or not. The majority of the thicknesses show the line fairly close to the Lower Great Lakes and in the South Illinois/Central Illinois area. This leads me to think that any precip in that area would be a wintry mix.
12 hours ahead, the models finally agree on something: another low pressure comes in from the Northwest. Most place it as a pretty organized storm, but the holdouts place it as somewhat disorganized. Either way, the members that do show Chicago receiving snow say that the thickness will create a rainy event possibly. The non-precip members keep the thickness down south. Meanwhile, some models place the Northwest low dividing into two areas of precip and then moving off.
Another 12 hours passes. The models mostly hit pretty much all of the Great Lakes with a precip area. I would say a snow/ice/ rain? event. So maybe rain to snow in Chicago, snow showers in Madison, snow showers in Detroit, etc. One member has a low suddenly exploding in Louisiana. I deny that because it's only one member.
Another 12 hours. Just about every one now agrees on some sort of precip hitting the Great Lakes, with it possibly impacting the Gulf Coast area south of the West Great Lakes. A heavy majority of the models still keep that Northwest low in the mix, but one member has that low combine into the mostly Wisconsin precip. I think there will be two lows: One in the GL (Great Lakes), and one in the NW (Northwest). Some models still dont bring precip to Madison or Detroit.
Continuing on to the end, the ensembles end up going in different directions. Most bring some precip through the East Coast while others declare a low suddenly booming in the Heartland. All the models agree on yet another NW low coming through. Most models project precip for either the Great Lakes or the South. Some don't have any at all except for the NW low and the precip moving out to the Atlantic.
In the end, the models keep ushering in more and more NW lows and dragging them through the North US. Some models bring some rain into the South, while others don't bother.

WE'RE NOT DONE YET!!!!!!

Now we go to the Long Range GFS.
The LR GFS shows the Great Lakes getting hit with a snow/ice storm with maybe a hint of rain right off the bat. That low then trails off to the Atlantic where it stalls and becomes a monstrosity. It even gives the GL region a backlash from an 'arm' that sweeps the area from the storm.

Well, that's finally it.
JUST KIDDING!!! One more thing: Meteogram.

Chicago's meteogram says a rain storm with possible thunderstorms with high instability on November 30th. But the meteogram doesn't show convective precip...hmmm....
Moving on, another rain storm impacts the area going into the 4th of December. If that turns out to be snow, it'll be a big one.
Into the last one, it goes off with rain on Dec. 5-6th then convective snow (thundersnow) periodically until December 12th.

This has been your Long Range Ensemble Run, your Long Range GFS run, and your meteogram all in one. Too much for one post, eh? Yeah, I thought so too.
Alright, have a good day/morning/night/evening!!

Potential Great lakes Snowstorm

Good Morning! Hope y'all had a good Thanksgiving!

Okay, let's get right down to the business here. As the title states, the Great Lakes could see a pretty nice snowstorm on December 4th.

The Long Range GFS is indicating that Chicago could get hit the worst.

The probability of that happening is roughly in the 60 percent range.

By the way, the snowstorm I indicated yesterday on the Long Range GFS will not be happening. So my probability does work.

Temperatures in the clouds should be just close enough to produce snow.

The meteograms are indicating snow, possible thundersnow which will be next in our Weather Explained.

Thundersnow is like a storm. It puts down precip fast. So thundersnow would mean a quick-producing snow system.

More updates as more info comes in.

Great Lakes GFS model 12/11

On December 11, the Long Range GFS is projecting a snow area to pop up in the Great Lakes into the far east Heartland.

How reliable is this?

Using my secret formula of prediction, the total comes out to 6% reliability. So it may not be too reliable.

Special Weather Advisory (East US)

A Special Weather Advisory is now in effect for the Eastern US, starting with Indiana southward in a straight line.

I am issuing this advisory for a HEAVY RAIN fear.

Over the next 7 days, 2 cold fronts will go through the area. Each will explode in Indiana and race eastward as potential squall lines.

In both cases, these fronts affect the entire East US.

How high is the flood risk?

Well, I would say that everyone in this advisory is under a MODERATE risk due to how the same scenario comes up twice in 7 days.

Rain accumulations may be upwards of an inch, with more than 2 inches if storms begin training

(repeating in the same spot).

A watch may be issued for this area going in to Black Friday if the model stays the same.

12/09 Potential Great Lakes Snowstorm Update #1

Well, I ran the GFS and checked out some long-range meteograms (seperate charts).

It has been concluded that the storm system will probably not hit us, rather produce a batch of flurries.

This was expected due to the range of its forecasting.

HOWEVER! A recently updated meteogram indicates that this time period will have a low pressure. Not a low pressure SYSTEM, but a low pressure reading.

This usually indicates some form of weather.

This is the FINAL update for this period unless another event occurs.

GFS model Runs

I will be posting potential storms for the Great Lakes strictly unless there is a strong storm occurring.

So, let's get on with it.

GREAT LAKES

I believe that in the next couple days, there will be a wintry mix of a storm on the 25th. I think it will be mostly rain, but ice pellets may occur due to the closeness of thickness.

A more important event will occur on the 5th of December. Before I explain, it is essential for you to know that this is on the GFS long range model, and it is unlikely that it will stay relatively the same.

So on December 4th into 5th, in the wake of a strong low pressure, snow may occur. The thickness will be fine for snow to occur. Accumulations I would estimate at maximum 6 inches.

On December 9th, an even more important event may take place. This is the furthest out the model can go, so I wouldn't count on it too much until a couple days before.

But right now, the GFS is saying that a possibly significant snowstorm could erupt in the Great Lakes. Accumulations could be well beyond 6 inches. It is hard to tell.

EAST U.S.

There is essentially only one thing to say: Throughout the next couple weeks, low pressure systems will go through the Central US. Cold fronts will spurt squall line-type storms in every event. They appear to have the possibility to train (stay in one place for a long time) and create dangerous flooding conditions.

WEST U.S.

For the next two weeks, mostly, some minor storms will come through, even a major storm will go through.

But they will mostly intensify in the Central US.

That's about it for now.

More updates tomorrow, mostly individually.

12/09 Potential Great Lakes Snowstorm

On December 9th, a significant snow storm could occur in the Great Lakes. The thickness will be WELL below the maximum level needed for snow to occur. It is so far off and doesn't even lead through the Long-Range GFS model graphics because it's so far off. We should know more tomorrow. Updates tomorrow.

12/05 Potential Great Lakes Snow Event

The long range GFS is reporting the possibility of a major rain-to- snowstorm in the Great Lakes on Dcember 4th-5th.

I am not sure at all, mainly because it is so far off. More updates tomorrow.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #5

Good afternoon everybody! Talk about TGIF.

I just ran the GFS fully. It says passing showers turning in to a nice rain on November 23rd. As it gets closer, it's a pretty good bet for showers.

For the 25th, The GFS is saying a less intense storm will pull through and just skim the North Illinois area but cover Wisconsin.

A lake snow machine will kick in in Michigan after the 25th for a day.

I am running the Long-Range GFS. It says, for the Great Lakes, that after a cold blast, the area will get a very nice warm-up. Still will have to monitor it.

The NAM model shows rain showers for the 23rd.

This isn't much of an update, and very short, but it's a new run from the models.

Enjoy the weekend!

Long Range GFS

Northwest- A low pressure with central pressure of 972mb could occur on Saturday, nov. 27th.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #1

Hello everyone! This is an update to the Possible Lower Great Lakes' first snow in Chicago, maybe Detroit. I know Chicago hasn't had its first flakes yet.

Let's get down to business. Yesterday I told you about how there would likely be some changes in the Long Range GFS model run I saw? Well, it changed in a matter of 10 hours.

Now, it appears the precip will begin in the Ohio Valley and rapidly intensify as it develops as a cold front.

It looks like, for right now, Chicago won't be getting any snow for November 23rd.

HOWEVER! On an extended run of the GFS, I noticed two storm systems sliding through on November 25th. They came through the Lower Great Lakes. They were relatively minor and wouldn't put down any amount more than 4 inches in outlying areas of Chicago.

Additionally, I saw a much more potent cold front that really was intense. It appeared on the models as orange. I would relate that to an inch of snow an hour if the weather was cold enough.

I know how some kids are jealous in Chicago and some are happy in the Ohio Valley. But, there is a new graph I just checked.

The temperature graph on the GFS indicated that Temperatures may be too warm up in the clouds to produce snow. I would expect a mix in all areas, with maybe a majority of flakes right by the front.

In conclusion, No snow Nov. 23rd, Snow the 25th for the Great Lakes. Ohio Valley, keep an eye out for both those days.

Potential Great Lakes Snow

After consulting with the Long-Range GFS (Global Forecast System), I decided it would be wise to inform you about the possible snow event for the Lower Great Lakes.

According to 2 temperature graphs at different heights, it does appear that the Lower Great Lakes will be in a mild spell. A warm front will come through, strengthening as it moves through. The GFS spells out that the precip could be intense.

Current doubts are obvious. One is that the supposed event is supposed to happen on November 23. About 6 days from now. In weather time, there's a huge amount of uncertainty.

Another doubt is for the snow. It appears that the front strengthens in about the NW Indiana area.

I believe that, although it will certainly change in one way or another, that if it works out as is currently projected (I'm almost guaranteeing changes), the snow could be somewhat light or moderate in cities such as Chicago, but really kick up in areas like Gary, Indiana or Detroit.

So, that's a brief preview in to a possible snow event for the next week or so.

Stay tuned to he Weather Centre to keep up to date on all the info.

November 12th 2010 Winter Storm Set-up Upper Midwest

This is the Official Winter Briefing for the Upper Midwest winter storm.

Below is our first graphic from the National Weather Service. We can see how heavy the snow is. The pink areas are heaviest, and lesser amounts in purple.

Below is the National graphic for today from the HPC; part of the NOAA. We can see the low pressure is right there, providing the energy. I'll be honest, this is possible snow day material, and definitely snow fort material.

Below is the chance today for 4 inches of snow or more from the HPC. The red means likely 4 inches, maybe 5. The green area is probably a max of 4 inches, and blue people can expect a max of 3 inches.

Below is a HPC graphic of 8 inches or more. In the green areas, I would expect about 6 inches. In the blue, I would expect 4 inches, 5 max.

So, as a wrap-up, this storm will produce possibly significant accumulations in Duluth. This is the only briefing.

Current US Temperatures

World Precip Forecast November 2nd

Today's Travel Map

11/1/10 evening Radar Loop

This is a loop of the recent runs of the SPC's satellite. We can see very strong storms out of Texas. These are singular cells, which are more ideal for tornadoes.