Fordyce, Arkansas has been hit by Confirmed Tornado

Fordyce, Arkansas has been hit by a confirmed tornado this evening.
There are reports of damage as well as Unconfirmed reports of extensive damage in Fordyce.

Bearden, Arkansas Cell Significant Rotation

There is tight rotation associated with the Bearden, Arkansas cell. I believe there may be a tornado on the ground. In the event that there is a tornado, everyone in Bearden and northeast has to take cover now.
This is a very serious threat. These storms are moving at over 50 MPH, so you may have little time to take cover.

REPORT: Trained NWS Spotter has detected a wall cloud with the Redfield, Arkansas cell.

Mesoscale Discusion #48- Significant Tornado Potential Increasing

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
VALID 230048Z - 230145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT
REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR.
AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW
ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS
HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z
LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD
OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN
EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

Prattsville, Arkansas Cell May Have a Tornado

The couplet of red and green is indicative of rotation.

The hole in the middle of the storm is a sign that some rotation may be occurring.

Radar returns are indicating that a tornado may be on the ground near Prattsville, Arkansas. We are not confident in this, but velocities are leading me to think that a tornado may be on the ground. I will continue to publish tornado warnings and be on the weather watch.

Prattsville, Arkansas Storm Showing Signs of Rotation

(Note: We will not be publishing severe t-storm warnings anymore).

We are seeing signs of rotation in the Prattsville, Arkansas thunderstorm. The couplet of dark blue and light green indicates opposing strengths in the winds which could mean there is rotation in the storm cell.
I am concerned that this storm could go tornado warned due to this potential rotation, so those in the big yellow severe t-storm box where Prattsville is should immediately prepare to take cover.

5:55 PM CST Update 1/22/12

Radar is indicating several lines of thunderstorms are forming in Arkansas.
While some may think that squall lines are not productive for tornadoes, but these lines are made up of loose super cells, which are effectively tornado-producing squall lines, making the situation all the more dangerous.
We will have updates every half hour or so, and warnings will be firing out soon.

Screaming Jet Stream to Introduce Severe Weather

The NAM model is forecasting the jet stream (300mb level) to be screaming at over 100mph when the severe storms initiate this evening. To give you an idea of how intense that is, the April 2011 tornado outbreak also involved a jet stream over 100mph. As the system digs into the south Plains, it will try to break up the jet stream, making a rubber band-type situation. As the force (the low pressure system) digs farther into the rubber band (jet stream), the stress (wind speed) on the rubber band will increase, thus setting the stage for even stronger storms as the wind speeds increase.
Here's the NSSL's WRF forecast for the same timeframe as the jet stream image above.

The images cooperate nicely, with the jet stream enhancing the storms blowing up in Illinois.
We will have much more on the developing situation. Stay with The Weather Centre for the latest severe weather updates on this system.

Storm Relative Helicity Values at 550 in South Illinois

Storm Relative Helicity at the 1 km level is determining the likelihood of rotation in the air 1 km from the ground. Increased potentials for tornadoes start at around 100 units, so 550 units in southern Illinois is quite a hefty indication that the atmosphere has some serious spinning motions going on.
I expect the highest values of the Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) to shift south as the cold front, denoted by the sharp gradient in east Oklahoma, moves east.
We will have more information on the developing potential outbreak as it comes along.