Mesoscale Discusion #48- Significant Tornado Potential Increasing

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
VALID 230048Z - 230145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT
REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR.
AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW
ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS
HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z
LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD
OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN
EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.