Significant East US Storm This Weekend.

This is the Weather Centre's Chief Meteorologist Andrew, here to give you the latest information on this developing intense storm.

We're going start out with some models, preferably the GFS.

GFS---

The GFS is letting the low pressure system slide down a bit farther south than previously thought, enhancing the precip abilities farther away from the GL and closer to the Kentucky Tennessee areas. Despite this, relative humidity will remain very high throughout Chicago into maybe St. Louis.

Thickness would be fine in the GL and even a bit south.

CMC----

The CMC would rather hoist the low up through south Illinois and into Indiana, bringing substantial precip through the lower GL and mainly across the entire East CONUS. (The US.)

RH will be abundant throughout this area.

Thickness shows that the precip would eventually change to snow with significant accumulations possible.

NOGAPS----

The NOGAPS wants this low to take the same track as the CMC, but bring up precip farther through the GL. Thickness for the Lower West GL would be adequate.

Total Accumulation Ensembles----

So, for 12 total precip ensembles:

6 members show the storm mainly striking the Mid-South east in Kentucky Tennessee areas.

4 members show the storm striking the Lower GL.

The other members show the storm not strong enough to make significant precip.

Out of that, I think that it's a tossup between the more western track and the southern track.

Meteogram----

The meteogram shows snow definitely occurring.

The below is a quote from weather.com

Midwest: Snow moves out of the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, intensifying into heavy, wind-driven snow in either the western Great Lakes or mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys Saturday night, continuing into Sunday, depending on the exact track of the surface low. A period of sleet or freezing rain also possible in the Ohio Valley Saturday. Major travel disruption seems likely!

Northeast: Precipitation may start as either snow, sleet or freezing rain Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly inland of I-95. Some icing is possible from western VA into Upstate New York and northern New England. That said, a changeover to rain is expected, particularly near the coast Sunday. However, locations from western New York through the Appalachians may quickly change back to heavy, wind-driven snow later Sunday through early next week. Majortravel disruption possible!

Southeast: Severe weather threat looks limited, due to a lack of warm, moist air penetrating northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Some t-storms may bear watching near the Gulf Coast Saturday, then again late Saturday night into Sunday from the Carolina coast into Florida. More snow is expected for the Smoky Mountains and also possibly parts of Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday into perhaps Monday.

Significant East US Snowstorm on the way.

I now have enough confidence to believe that this storm will take shape. I just ran the newest models.

ENSEMBLES----

Well, the ensembles showed the thickness line staying below the Chicago, Madison, Quad Cities area for precip, but affecting the Chicago Milwaukee area more than the other Midwest cities.

The precip featured is forecast to be heavy.

But I want to put an emphasis on how hard the areas such as Kentucky may be hit.

The colors on the ensembles are green and yellow. I haven't seen that on an ensemble before.

I encourage that area to prepare for a blasting of rain.

So, in summary, Chicago and Milwaukee should prepare for disrupting snow, while Kentucky and Tennessee areas should prepare for a blasting of rain.

MODELS----

CMC----

The CMC shows the thickness line too close for comfort as the system barrels through. However, then the thickness will fall and change to heavy snow. RH will be sustained.

GFS----

The GFS indicates that the low will dive much farther south and barely affect the GL areas. But it will be a monster when it impacts the Southern area in that time period, IF it affects them.

NOGAPS----

The NOGAPS indicates the thickness line extremely close to Chicago. But then changing to Snow.

Updates later.

Official Forecast for Sunday storm

This is my official forecast for this Sunday's upcoming storm.

I think that the areas that will be hit hard will be either between the Great Lakes or the South Central East US.

Additionally, I have pictured below where I think the precip will occur and what type.

Also below, I have created an image about what the intensity may be.

Finally, I have the Forecast Low Track.

To sum it up, I believe that the Great Lakes and Southcentral East US will get significant precip.

Great Lakes- Snow

SC. East- Rain

Significant storm on the way for GL??

This is Chief Meteorologist Andrew, here to bring you up to date on what could turn out as a very impressive storm over the Great Lakes. (NOTE: THIS STORM IS 6 DAYS AWAY. INFO NOW SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN WITH CONFIDENCE, BUT WITH CAUTION.) First, let's pull up the GFS.

The GFS is indicating that the thickness will be more than fine when this proposed system comes through the area. The model is even indicating that an arctic outbreak may be in order, judging by how far down the thickness dips.

The RH, or Relative Humidity, will be much more than abundant for precipitation to be formed. This system will not be like the one the Midwest recently experienced. It may be an extremely significant storm. The GFS even says it'll stick around for possibly the entire day, laying down an impressive total.

The CMC model is projecting the storm to hit the Kentucky-South Illinois area as rain. The thickness indicated will be a toss-up as it sits in Central Illinois for the Great Lakes. The model does show areas such as Chicago getting in on some action, emphasize some. But definitely, the CMC is throwing the bulk of this storm into the Kentucky area.

But wait! The RH meters are indicating a much more concentrated area of abundance in the Great Lakes in the Quad Cities or Chicago. What does this mean? It's precip vs. Relative humidity!

So let's figure this out. Relative Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air. This is up against the CMC showing precip occurring to the South of this mass of humidity. 90% RH usually means precipitation. So what will this mean? We'll have to see as the days go on.

The NOGAPS model says that, with fine thickness, the storm will strike through Central Illinois, missing Madison, WI and Chicago. Relative humidity agrees. But not all hope is lost.

So, let's get on with the ensembles. The most recent ensemble update put out some interesting results. Only a couple predicted the Lake Michigan west side to get it, but many predicted this storm diving south then flying back up to meet the east Great Lakes. About 6 of them predicted that scenario. The others were spread out.

CORRECTION:: New update JUST received. This one tells that the Great Lakes are more in the line of fire of this storm. In fact, 10 of them out of 12 do.

There will be another post shortly with other sites input, be sure to tune in for our official forecast!

Potential GL Snowstorm Models Update #1

0000Z GFS: 11/12 SNOW, 12/12 PRECIP, 1/12 MIX

0000Z CMC: 4/16 SNOW, 10/16 PRECIP, 3/16 MIX, 3/16 RAIN

0600Z GFS: 11/12 SNOW, 11/12 PRECIP

1200Z GFS: 9/12 SNOW, 11/12 PRECIP, 2/12 MIX

1800Z GFS: 11/12 SNOW, 12/12 PRECIP, 1/12 MIX

COMBINED ENSEMBLE STATISTICS: Out of 64

56 indicate PRECIPITATION

46 indicate SNOW

7 indicate MIX

3 indicate RAIN

Chance of PRECIP: 88%

Chance of SNOW: 72%

Chance of MIX: 11%

Chance of RAIN: 5%

MODELS:

CMC----

The CMC indicates a strike on Chicago and Milwaukee. It shows the same set-up as this weekend's storm in the Lower GL, except this time, the models show it veering slightly into Chicago and not out as much towards the Quad Cities, Iowa.

Thickness remains fine, and Relative Humidity centered in Western Illinois again. However, it is still affecting most of the area around the GL.

NOGAPS----

The NOGAPS shows the clipper-like system completely missing the Quad Cities, Chicago and barreling into the Upper Great Lakes as a weak system but stronger by the lakes.

Relative Humidity and Thickness fine for the Upper GL.

GFS----

The GFS shows Madison, Milwaukee, and all of Wisconsin facing the storm head on while clipping North Illinois. However, RH (Relative Humidity) will be conductive for the entire East Illinois area. Thickness will be fine.

TOTAL STATISTICS: out of 67

58 indicate PRECIPITATION

48 indicate SNOW

7 indicate MIX

3 indicate RAIN

Chance of PRECIP: 87%

Chance of SNOW: 72%

Chance of MIX: 10%

Chance of RAIN: 5%