SPC 4km WRF Depicts Tropical Storm Landfalling in North Carolina Tomorrow Morning

Courtesy of PoliClimate

The SPC's 4km WRF model is projecting Atlantic Invest 93 to make landfall in North Carolina as a tropical storm, with winds just surpassing 60 knots. The NAM is not showing a landfalling system, and until we get into the evening hours, the RAP short range model will likely not have a good handle on the system.

Atlantic Invest 93 Dangerously Close to East Coast

Atlantic Invest 93 is now present in the Atlantic, and located very close to the East Coast, with a small portion of it already on land in the Carolinas. The system does have a 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.

Intensity forecasts do confirm this suspicion, with all models indicating this system to at least become a tropical storm. Beyond that, confidence is pretty low that a hurricane will form. Formation of a tropical storm should happen in the next day or two, with the SPC WRF-NMM actually showing an intense, small and compact circulation of showers and storms with this storm system.

Andrew

Severe Weather in Plains Today; Enhanced Hail Threat Evident

Overall Severe Weather Threat

Hail Threat

There is a severe weather threat over the Plains today, with large hail being the main threats. Tornado and damaging wind threats are also slightly enhanced.

It is looking as if the atmosphere is going to be moist enough to provide some stronger storms, unlike areas to the east, where the air is extremely dry. As of now, it does appear that instability values are within the 1000 j/kg realm within the slight risk area. However, shearing values in the atmosphere, while they are substantial, are located to the west. I do believe that, with time, we should see these shearing values shift east. The reason they are currently to the west is that there is indeed a dry line just off the Rocky Mountain range, as seen below.

There is a dryline just off the Rockies and a cold front trailing into the Southwest. I am thinking that this cold front will be able to catch up with the dry line and spark thunderstorms later in the afternoon. According to the SPC's WRF-NMM, development should really start at around 5:00 PM CDT, and intensify throughout the evening and late evening hours.

Storm Spot: Concordia, Kansas to Hastings, Nebraska
(Storm Spot serves as an indicator for the best thunderstorms and severe weather)

Andrew

No Post Today

Sorry there's no post today, I was out enjoying the nice weather a bit longer than I had anticipated.

Also, I do appreciate those who comment and contribute to discussions, so please do so if you have something to share.

Andrew

LRC Aligns for Potential Severe Weather Outbreak in Late May

The Lezak Recurring Cycle does appear to be pointing out a severe weather event in the late May timeframe. Now, the event I have caught is about 40 days in between the event and what is being forecast, and that is just outside the 45-50 day cycle period that has been recognized for this year's LRC pattern, so use with caution.

On April 15, 2012, we had a severe weather event associated with a strong low pressure system, as seen below.

(I do realize that the maps are about a day in difference, but they involve the same system.) A strong storm system had moved east and northeast into the far northern Great Lakes and produced a regional tornado outbreak, mainly in Kansas and southern Iowa into Nebraska. This storm system was below the 996mb mark, indicating how strong it was. Let's take a look at the May 25 forecast off the FIM.

The FIM is showing a very strong system hitting the far northern Plains after coming out of the Western US. Similar to the April 15 event, a ridge of high pressure will be located in the Eastern US, with a warm sector crossing the Plains and Midwest. The difference involves strength and placement of the system, which is to be expected, considering each cycle is not exact to the previous one. That said, if this does match up with the LRC, this is what may happen.

Andrew