The ECMWF is showing a once in a lifetime snowstorm for the Northeast on January 4th. Above, we see the ECMWF image for the January 4th timeframe. On the top right image we see the incredibly strong low pressure system moving up the coast of the East US. If this were to verify, it would be
ALL SNOW. Totals, if this were to happen, would
EASILY EXCEED 18 INCHES OF SNOW. So the question is, will this happen?
The NAO says NO. When the NAO is positive, historically snowstorms are fighting a very uphill battle to happen, thus the lack of snowstorms this winter as we have seen a very positive NAO. Despite this, we are trying to see if the LRC pattern may have this storm in its sights. By using a comparison between 45-50 days (the estimated cycle time this year), a storm did show up 45-50 days ago that can be matched loosely with this ECMWF forecast. We will continue monitoring this, but the +NAO can be a real killer.
6 comments:
so u say the nao says no but the mjo is starting too say yes plus the nao could be neutral which would mean a lot pna will be postive more than likelt that says yes so the cmc says it could happen too?
Dont believe this one bit. There not going to be any snowstorm on Jan 4th. Give up on snowstorms this year. They are not going to happen for the great lakes this season. Take that to vegas.
Anonymous #1: We are reviewing these and more indices, in case the 0z ECMWF shows it. If the 0z run does show it, we will post the other indices. It is something worth watching when models side with one another. I guess we will have to see.
Anonymous #2: I would not take that bet anywhere. I would like to see some evidence of your belief that there will be no snowstorms, because that is a monumental accusation.
Would Detroit get snow
Hello Andrew.Would my area in Ohio get snow from this system?I'm located in holmes county ohio.I really,really hope so.I have had so much rain i think i'm going to sink all the way down to the land down under.Australia.
Eddie: If the storm shifts west, possibly. The track will mean a lot for this.
Mike: Once again, the track depends on this. If the CURRENT ECMWF track holds, your area might get snow.
Post a Comment