For the rest of winter, we are expecting the east Coast to end up above normal, temperature wise. We find this likely, as the fall was very warm, and trends in fall can move into winter, which has happened this season. Additionally, no blocking has been present. Blocking involves a high pressure over Greenland, which enables cold air to move into the Northeast and push the storm track south, so that the Northeast is in a prime spot for snowstorms. That is not happening this year. This is due to stratospheric warming, among other things. Usually, the stratosphere will warm in the early days of winter and start up the snowstorms. However, the stratosphere has not been warming until the last couple of days. This means that the pattern change will take at least 2 weeks to take effect. Essentially meaning at least 2 weeks until a major snowstorm.
The Ohio Valley southwest-ward into the Southern Plains will be experiencing wet conditions. Ohio has already broken all-time records for rainfall. This is expected to continue through the winter, and when the pattern change occurs, we will be seeing big snowstorms cut through the Ohio Valley. I am expecting several, if not many, 'major' snowstorms once the pattern changes for the Ohio Valley.
Down in the far Southern Plains we see an area of dry conditions expected. This is due to the La Nina, but has been helped by a +NAO/+AO.
Far out west, cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Notes about the indices:
-NAO should average above normal for the winter, but will dip negative at least once the rest of the winter. When it does dip into a good negative, I can see a big snow hit the Northeast.
-AO is in the same boat as the NAO.
14 comments:
Good afternoon Andrew.As i read this UPDATED 2011-2012 winter forecast,it still looks like your thinking that my area in Ohio will get hit pretty hard when the pattern change occurs,is this correct?Also,your actually precicting some "MAJOR" SNOWSTORMS for my area also?I'm surely hoping this happens when the pattern change occcurs.I was watching my weather today,and they stated the pattern may change about the second week in January.Are you thinking the same?Are you still calling for above normal snowfall for my area?Sorry for all the questions.Your the only one that answers them,all the other sites i visit don't.
Hi Andreew.Will most of these storms be coming out of the southwest of Ohio?Do you think the gulf of mexico will contribute with copious amounts of moisture?
Yes, Ohio will get hit very hard with snow when the pattern change occurs. Major snowstorms are possible/likely, especially with how much rain you are getting. 1 inch of rain can equal 10 inches of snow. Unfortunately, I am going to have to push back the pattern change about a week. There is a warming trend over Alaska (where we want the warming to occur), but the models just aren't believing that this warming will stay. I am calling for around normal to slightly above normal snowfall for your area at this point. These storms will come out of the SW of Ohio, as well as coming through the Northeast. The Gulf will contribute moisture to these storms if they are able to dip far enough south to grab the moisture available.
Hi Andrew.Do you believe that there will be some storms with 10" snowfall amounts?
Will this winter pattern change ever happen? And will Detroit get like big snowstorms this year and cold weather
Mike: If enough cold air is in place, yes.
Eddie: The pattern change should happen soon. This winter will be nothing like last winter for the entire country.
would detroit still get big storms
Probably.
How about Charleston WV? Please don't include us in your major snowfalls - we had enough last year. I've enjoyed the rain and well above freezing temps!
If you don't like snow, you might not want to take a look at this.... http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2011/12/12z-ecmwf-shows-once-in-lifetime.html
what about richmond va are they looking at any snow in the near futeure?
We are watching the first couple weeks of January.
I live in Galion, Ohio (north Central). We have gotten squat for snow so far!!!!! Winter being my favorite season, I am really sad. Are you saying I have some significant snow to look forward to? I hope so. What are uou thinking is the timeline for this? Thanks!
Monica
Yes, it is looking like some potentially big snows are in your future. How many storms and the amount of accumulation still has to be determined.
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