Post Analysis: Hurricane Ernesto/Tropical Storm Hector

Hurricane Ernesto began as an invest in the Eastern Atlantic. For a few days, Ernesto waded west-northwest before becoming a tropical depression, and then Tropical Storm Ernesto was born shortly after.

Ernesto continued right into the mouth of the Caribbean. Model scenarios began depicting a potential scrape with the Yucatan Peninsula before the system would move into the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond then, forecasters could only fear the worst- rapid strengthening and a landfall on US soil.

As Ernesto continued on a mainly westward path, tainted slightly to the north, the cyclone was not strengthening as quickly as expected. As weaker storms tend to move west rather than south, forecasters began to see models shift south with their solutions, producing a full-on Yucatan Peninsula landfall.

Moving a few days ahead, something happened overnight that was unexpected to forecasters. Ernesto took a wobble south. This little movement was the nail in the coffin for any potential landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Ernesto then made another northwest movement, but it was too little too late.

Ernesto finally became a Category 1 hurricane right before the first landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After the landfall, Ernesto emerged a tropical storm, and headed west-southwest before making a second and final landfall on Mexico. It seemed Ernesto was set and done. But on the other side of Central America...

...Hector was born! The remnants of Ernesto moved southwest over Mexico before emerging into the East Pacific. Immediately, a tropical depression formed. This tropical depression made a little swing south as it moved west before eventually forming into Tropical Storm Hector.

It is not too common to have a cross-ocean tropical system. Because Ernesto technically dissipated over Mexico, it had to be renamed when it reformed in the East Pacific. However, if Ernesto had retained tropical storm strength, it would have emerged as Ernesto once again in the East Pacific.

Tropical Storm Hector continued on a west-southwest path before making a sharp turn north and degenerating into a tropical depression for a couple of days until degeneration and the end of Hector/Ernesto.

So, combined, how long did Ernesto's remnants stay alive? If Ernesto formed on August 1, and Hector dissipated on August 17, then this tropical system stayed in the game for a full 16 days. It's not often you see storms that survive that long, much less cross the ocean and regenerate.

Andrew

Ernesto Dissipates; Redevelopment in East Pacific Likely

Tropical Storm Ernesto dissipated today as it encountered landfall in Mexico, but as it emerges into the open waters of the East Pacific, redevelopment appears likely.

The NHC has outlined this system with a 60% chance of redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. There will be some obstacles in the way, however, with shearing already above 30 knots in Ernesto's path and upper level divergence at a pretty high value. Despite this, the system is maintaining a good form by satellite standards, and it would only take additional convection and strengthening to get the system where it needs to go.

The SHIPS forecasting model has it reaching above 100 knots of wind speed, as seen below.

                TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 16 16 19 30 43 56 67 78 90 100 106

Note: 'No Land' refers to the strength it can reach with no land interaction.

Andrew

Hurricane Ernesto To Landfall on Yucatan Peninsula Late Tonight

Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight at approximately midnight central time.

Latest indications are that Ernesto is moving to the west northwest at 15 MPH. Using rough estimates, I determined that the eye of Ernesto is about 110 miles from the Peninsula (any land, not just a city). Doing some simple calculations gives me a landfall time of about 10-11 PM CT. However, because the motion is to the northwest, another hour is added to the time for good measure.

Ernesto is currently a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 983 millibars and wind speeds of up to 80 MPH. This is a long way for Ernesto to come, as the past several days have resulted in multiple bursts of convection that failed to produce anything worthwhile.

Following the first landfall, emergence into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico is likely, where Ernesto will probably be a tropical storm. I believe Ernesto will then begin a more westward motion, as weaker tropical systems to, and hit Mexico as its second and final landfall. Restrengthening into a hurricane appears possible, but with limited time in the water (about 36 hours in waters close to land), that will be a tedious call. This landfall should happen between Thursday and Friday.

To recap:

-Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane.
-Landfall on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be roughly around Midnight CT.
-The first major population area affected will be Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Mexico.
-A second landfall on Mexico appears likely.

Andrew