Ernesto Dissipates; Redevelopment in East Pacific Likely

Tropical Storm Ernesto dissipated today as it encountered landfall in Mexico, but as it emerges into the open waters of the East Pacific, redevelopment appears likely.

The NHC has outlined this system with a 60% chance of redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. There will be some obstacles in the way, however, with shearing already above 30 knots in Ernesto's path and upper level divergence at a pretty high value. Despite this, the system is maintaining a good form by satellite standards, and it would only take additional convection and strengthening to get the system where it needs to go.

The SHIPS forecasting model has it reaching above 100 knots of wind speed, as seen below.

                TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 16 16 19 30 43 56 67 78 90 100 106

Note: 'No Land' refers to the strength it can reach with no land interaction.

Andrew

Hurricane Ernesto To Landfall on Yucatan Peninsula Late Tonight

Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight at approximately midnight central time.

Latest indications are that Ernesto is moving to the west northwest at 15 MPH. Using rough estimates, I determined that the eye of Ernesto is about 110 miles from the Peninsula (any land, not just a city). Doing some simple calculations gives me a landfall time of about 10-11 PM CT. However, because the motion is to the northwest, another hour is added to the time for good measure.

Ernesto is currently a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 983 millibars and wind speeds of up to 80 MPH. This is a long way for Ernesto to come, as the past several days have resulted in multiple bursts of convection that failed to produce anything worthwhile.

Following the first landfall, emergence into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico is likely, where Ernesto will probably be a tropical storm. I believe Ernesto will then begin a more westward motion, as weaker tropical systems to, and hit Mexico as its second and final landfall. Restrengthening into a hurricane appears possible, but with limited time in the water (about 36 hours in waters close to land), that will be a tedious call. This landfall should happen between Thursday and Friday.

To recap:

-Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane.
-Landfall on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be roughly around Midnight CT.
-The first major population area affected will be Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Mexico.
-A second landfall on Mexico appears likely.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Restrengthening

Tropical Storm Ernesto

TS Ernesto has experienced a recent blow-up of convection on all fronts and has been able to maintain this convection as the dry air mass fades into oblivion, and warmer waters and better environmental conditions take over. The system is far from developing a core that it had not too long ago, but this certainly is a starting point for a system that has taken the beating of beatings over the past several hours.

Looking at the steering layer conditions, the energy associated with Ernesto appears to be following a current that takes the system more westward than anything, as the system will be fighting a flow that would slam Ernesto into Central America. That said, I feel that landfall on Ernesto will likely happen a bit farther south than what the NHC is forecasting (see below image). However, because the system is not in a heavily sheared area, and stronger storms tend to want to curve north, there remains the potential for a more northwest direction. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wobbles South; Gulf of Mexico Not At Risk

Overnight, Tropical Storm Ernesto took an unanticipated jump to the south, and this was the nail in the coffin for a system that is going up against harsh, dry air.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting a westward movement of Ernesto before taking a northwest turn and crashing into the Yucatan Peninsula. After landfall, Ernesto is anticipated to strengthen into a hurricane before landfalling in Texas. But what do other models say to that?

The latest 18z model suite suggests that Ernesto will follow the NHC track mentioned above and landfall into the Yucatan Peninsula and then Mexico. There is another agreement between a few models, where Ernesto remains too weak to go northwest and crashes into Central America before being spit out into the Eastern Pacific.

Analogs from hurricanes in similar situations as Ernesto indicate that a dying of the system occurred with the majority of models that hit the lower half of the Yucatan Peninsula. This does not bode well for Ernesto, which is already a mess at the moment, judging by satellite imagery below.

Andrew

Ernesto To Hit Mexico; Gulf Coast Threat Diminishes

After Ernesto makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, it will be too weak to rapidly strengthen and move northeast into the Gulf Coast.
An overnight wobble south was the nail in the coffin for any Gulf Coast landfall possibilities.

I will have a full post out later today.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto 8:30 PM CT Forecast

8:30 PM CT
August 4, 2012

I am projecting Tropical Storm Ernesto to move on a west-northwest path across the Caribbean as a tropical storm before briefly gaining Category 1 strength prior to making a first landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Following that landfall, Ernesto will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, but quickly strengthen back into a hurricane. As rapid strengthening occurs, model guidance and myself find it possible that Ernesto may briefly reach major hurricane status.

Because model guidance only carries Ernesto to roughly a day after exiting the Yucatan Peninsula, a stronger hurricane than what I am projecting may be in store.

Upper level winds look to be on the downturn when Ernesto ejects from the Peninsula, and this could help development in Ernesto after it begins its journey in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is to be noted that the track I am showing will likely only work if significant strengthening occurs. Should strengthening occur slower than what I am thinking, the tropical cyclone will likely make landfall in northeast Mexico or extreme southern Texas.

More model watching is needed for me to be confident in this forecast, especially the portion of the forecast in the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, close monitoring is needed for the Gulf Coast.

Andrew

TS Ernesto Weakens as Dry Air is Pulled In

Tropical Storm Ernesto has run into drier air, and this has shown on satellite imagery as damaging the western flank of the system.

Water Vapor imagery indicates a wide area of dry air just ahead of Ernesto, and this is being enveloped into the system. Ernesto itself is comprised of a big blob of storms with a lot of debris clouds overspreading miles and miles away from Ernesto's core.

A loop of Ernesto shows the sudden diminishing of showers and storms in the storm, which will only continue to hamper further development until all of the dry air is out of the way, and this could take some time.

Andrew

TS Ernesto Aims For Gulf Coast; Florence to Dissipate Soon

Tropical Storm Ernesto

TS Ernesto is currently within the eastern half of the Caribbean and moving westward, in a motion that will eventually turn northwest. Ernesto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. Considering it will only be a hurricane for a short time, I do not believe that this landfall will be a significant one. 

Following the first landfall, I believe that Ernesto will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm after its bout with land. However, due to the relatively untouched Gulf waters this season, there should be enough energy for potentially rapid strengthening into a hurricane that, according to my calculations, should hit Texas or Louisiana. That said, anyone in the red 'Risk Area' should be on watch to prepare supplies for a tropical system. Those in Texas and Louisiana should prepare for a tropical cyclone impact now. Remember: Better safe than sorry!

Tropical Storm Florence

Florence has been quick to form, but will also be quick to dissipate, as the system enters an area with heavy shearing and moderate lower level winds. Florence should dissipate in a few days.

Andrew

First Forecast on TS Ernesto: Double Landfall Likely

I am forecasting Tropical Storm Ernesto to make a double landfall- once on the Yucatan Peninsula and another time on the Gulf Coast.

I believe Ernesto will follow model guidance and move northwest into a sharp north-northwest motion with time. As Ernesto moves into the western Caribbean, strengthening into a hurricane is likely, and Hurricane Ernesto should make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a chance that Ernesto could skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and not make landfall, but for now I think that a brief landfall is likely.
Following this brief landfall, Ernesto should rapidly strengthen in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico. I find it likely that strengths in the Gulf of Mexico could surpass Category 2 strength, possibly entering major hurricane status.

Climatologically, tropical cyclones that originate from Africa take one of two paths: A sharp turn north that hugs the East Coast and eventually shoots out to sea, or taking the southern route that moves through the Caribbean and hits the Gulf of Mexico. Given that TS Ernesto is already in the Caribbean, I find it unlikely that Ernesto will ride the coast. Rather, going with history, Ernesto should scrape/landfall the Yucatan Peninsula and then hit the Gulf Coast.
As of now, the models remain spread out over a Gulf Coast landfall, but if I had a say, I would think that Texas and Louisiana would be at the most risk, along with part of Mexico. However, since stronger storms have a tendency to curve north, it may come down to the wire in when Ernesto strengthens and where this strengthening happens in order to determine how far Ernesto curves north. That said, it would be a good idea for the entire Gulf Coast to be on watch.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Aims for Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Ernesto to move to the northwest and clip the Yucatan Peninsula before moving towards the Gulf Coast. Let's take a look at Ernesto now.

A center of circulation is definitely evident on satellite imagery, with the strongest convection shown in red. At this time, banding of showers and storms is evident on all sides of the storm, and this banding appears to center in the western part of the storm, where the circulation appears the strongest. According to this imagery, the southeastern and general eastern sides of the storm system appear strongest, with the most intense convection.

A loop of water vapor imagery indicates that there is a wide expanse of dry air ahead of Ernesto, and moving west as Ernesto is. This does concern me for possible development, as the western part of the system may never get too organized it the dry air keeps itself in the path of Ernesto. That lack of development in the western flank may hurt overall development for the system.

Lower level winds also pose a challenge for development, with at least 20 knots of lower level winds present. While not tremendous, this does still introduce another obstacle that will need to be dealt with by Ernesto in order to ensure proper development. Additionally, winds to the west of Ernesto are also strong, and this will only continue to hurt chances for significant development over the next 5 days in the Caribbean.

Shear tendencies near Ernesto are fairly strong, with at least 50 knots of shearing on the northeast side of the storm system. While that is to the northeast, there is another 30 knots or so of shearing to the west of Ernesto, with tendencies on the rise in the area. This, combined with significant lower level winds, will likely pose an interesting situation for Ernesto's development chances.

Short range model guidance suggests that Ernesto is to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. When the system does move into the Gulf of Mexico, it can be expected that rapid strengthening may occur for the system. If such rapid strengthening is to happen, I could see a moderate strength hurricane setting its sights on the Gulf Coast.

Andrew

Ernesto Track Shifts Slightly North; Gulf Of Mexico At Risk

The National Hurricane Center has slightly shifted Tropical Storm Ernesto's track northward in the newest 10 PM CT update. The 4 PM CT update is slightly farther south, and thus has less potential to effect the US.

What does it matter that the track shifted north a bit?
Any slight shift will have dramatic results to the eventual landfall and intensity of TS Ernesto. In the 4 PM CT update, which was slightly farther south, Ernesto would have likely made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, and then a toss-up between the Gulf of Mexico's coast and Mexico for a second landfall.
In the newest, slightly north update, Ernesto looks to scrape the Yucatan Peninsula before shooting into the Gulf of Mexico. With this 10 PM update, my confidence grows that this may become more of a Gulf Coast threat than Mexico. Whether that verifies remains to be seen.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms

Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates intense convection in the center and southwestern flank of the storm, with outer banding becoming evident, especially on the northern side of the storm. Additional banding is also evident on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical storm warnings have been hoisted in portions of the Caribbean as the National Hurricane Center forecasts Ernesto to move west-northwest before eventually making a northwest turn. During the northwest turn, strengthening to a hurricane appears likely.

If we look beyond the NHC forecast, landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula appears likely before the system exits into the Gulf of Mexico and churns there before threatening either Mexico or Texas. This will have to be closely monitored.

Andrew