Updated December Long Range Forecast

In an effort to cut down on confusion that has been stirred up in recent days, I'm publishing this post to give an idea of my thoughts for the rest of the month.

To stay as accurate as possible, we'll start off with the weather overseas.

Tropical Tidbits

The image above shows forecasted 500mb height anomalies over the West Pacific. In this image, valid on December 6th, we see a deep trough over Japan. Those of you who have followed us for a while know that stormy weather over Japan correlates to stormy weather here about 6-10 days later. This graphic tells us that the weather will likely be colder than normal on a December 12-16th timeframe, possibly with an accompanying storm system (but I wouldn't hold my breath for it).

Tropical Tidbits

By December 10th, the trough has moved out and a ridge has filled in. This ridge won't be of a spectacular magnitude, but it looks strong enough to indicate quiet and warm weather here in the United States in a December 16th-20th time period.

Tropical Tidbits

The last image I'll show you with relations to Japan is above, valid on December 13th. Looking at East Asia, notice an elongated trough to the north of the island nation, inducing below-normal height anomalies in the country. Using the Typhoon Rule, we can approximate a cold/stormy period following the aforementioned ridge, namely in a December 19-23 period, if not for longer. It should be noted that this trough doesn't "dig" south into Japan, raising concerns that a zonal flow (average to slightly warm) pattern may evolve instead of this cold weather. I will issue additional updates as needed.

ESRL

Top left: PNA Forecast
Top right: NAO Forecast
Bottom left: WPO Forecast
Bottom right: EPO Forecast

A quick refresher on the PNA and NAO...

The Pacific North American index involves what the atmosphere does in the northeast Pacific and the western coast of North America. When we see a stormy pattern in place over these regions, we call such a pattern a negative PNA, due to the below normal height anomalies in this region. In a similar sense, when high pressure dominates that same region, we call that a positive PNA. A negative PNA will bend the jet stream to give the storms to the Plains and the Deep South regions, frequently initiating high pressure system formations over the Central US. A Positive PNA will bring about an opposite response to high pressure (HP) over the West, and will have the stormy pattern evolve over the East US.

The North Atlantic Oscillation involves the presence of a high pressure system over Greenland (negative NAO) or the presence of a low pressure system over Greenland (positive NAO). In the negative NAO, the jet stream will buckle into the Northeast to allow storms and cold to thrive in that region. The positive NAO denies this region any of these benefits.

Glancing over this four-panel forecast, we find that the PNA is expected to stay positive throughout the entire forecast period. This will allow for high pressure to reside in the West, which would usually give way to a cold period in the Central and East US. However, on the next panel, the positive NAO projection tells us this ridge will be allowed to bleed east into those aforementioned areas, keeping most of the country warmer than normal.
The positive WPO and EPO, both Pacific teleconnections, are good for cold weather prospects in the Central and East US, but until that positive NAO ends, we're likely stuck with a warm period.

Wait... so you're predicting some good cold shots, but also a warm period for the same timeframe?

The idea I'm getting right now is that the next 10-15 days of December are looking predominantly warm. However, in between those warm spells, some cold air outbreaks (not intense, but still noticeable) may be expected. This is a pretty turbulent forecast period, since I'm experiencing a good deal of uncertainty.

* For those of you who have been following on Facebook and were confused by my analog postings last night, please disregard those postings and go with this article as your guide to my expectations.

To summarize:

- A cold spell may be expected in a December 12-16 period.
- Warmth will then follow in December 16-20th, roughly.
- Around December 19-23 and beyond, the risk of below-normal temperatures may return, but uncertainty is high.
- The overall pattern remains generally unfavorable for sustained cold weather.

Andrew

New, Successful Analog Guidance Predicts Warm December, Cold January

A new system of analog guidance I composed in recent days, showing success in the limited number of trial runs I have conducted, is forecasting a predominantly warm month of December, followed by a cold January.

ESRL

The image above shows analog guidance's temperature forecast for the month of December. As the image shows, millions across the country would average out over a degree (Celsius) above normal, primarily in the Plains and Midwest. Only the Southwest would see a colder than normal start to winter.

Now, how accurate is this analog guidance? I just got this system up on its feet last night, and these are the first results of the forecast. Some development is still needed, but that will come with time. I've noticed the analogs seem to understand the general pattern (i.e. negative Arctic Oscillation, positive PNA, etc), but still do struggle with less-synoptic features. For now, I'm presenting the data here, allowing it to verify and examine how it does later in January.

ESRL

In January, my analogs see the mass of cold air being stored in Canada on the last image bulldozing southward, bringing below-normal temperature anomalies to much of the nation, especially the northern Plains. The South then looks to see slightly above normal temperatures. Oddly enough, this pattern is surprisingly La Nina-like, even though I made sure to factor in El Nino analogs.

ESRL

The 500mb height forecast anomalies for January show sustained ridging over the Arctic, forcing what appears to be the brunt of the Polar Vortex south into western North America. This then bleeds east, allowing for those chilly temperature anomalies in the Central US.

I'll end this post with a look at the analog forecast for the stratospheric portion of the polar vortex, since this image only shows the tropospheric version.

ESRL

If you look closely, you'll see the polar vortex has been nearly obliterated...

To summarize:

- A new set of successful analog years is predicting a warm month in December, followed by a cold month in January.

Andrew

Long Range Outlook: Cold, Stormy Period Expected in Mid-December

It's looking like a cold and stormy pattern will overtake the US for the mid-December timeframe.

Tropical Tidbits

The image above shows 500mb height anomalies over the Western Pacific on the evening of December 1st. In this image, we see what is very likely a lobe of the polar vortex passing just north of Japan, occluding and cutting north as it does so. Minimum values here at the 500mb level in this image, off the GFS ensembles, appear to drop close to 490 dam, an indication of either an incredibly strong upper level low, or the more-likely polar vortex lobe.
This situation appears similar to the case we had last winter, where we saw a very strong upper level low crash into Japan to round out the year 2013, which then led to incredibly cold weather in the first week of the new year.

ESRL
December 27, 2013

If we recall the Typhoon Rule, which states weather phenomena occurring over East Asia is reciprocated in the United States about 6-10 days later, we could expect a bout of  substantial cold here at home in the December 7-11 timeframe. Should this verify, which is becoming increasingly likely given model consistency, the Central and parts of the East US may expect a bout of intense Arctic air to hit in the middle of December.

But it doesn't end there...

Tropical Tidbits

The image above once again shows 500mb height anomalies from the GFS ensembles, now valid on December 6th. Notice that we still see below-normal heights over Japan. This means Japan has been under a strong upper level low's influence for nearly a week, and still going. Building off of the first graphic, it's quite possible that the United States may also undergo a harsh beating from cold weather for nearly a week straight. The degree of this cold air is still under examination, but if it's anything like the upper level low expected to trek north of Japan to open December, watch out. 

JMA

The stratosphere is also working in conjunction with this strong upper level low over Japan. The image above shows the last week or so of temperature anomalies over the North Hemisphere at the 10 millibar level.

When we look at the final days of November, we find ourselves on the tail end of a stratospheric warming event, as the pink colors show in the boxes labeled November 24th through 26th. When we factor in that stratospheric warming events typically reflect in the troposphere about 2-4 weeks after the warming event, evidence for a synoptic cold weather outbreak strengthens for the early-mid stages of December, only enhanced by this Typhoon Rule component.

From here, the waters get a little murky.

CPC

The image above shows the projected phase space for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) off the GFS Ensembles. Each triangle-esque shape represents a specific phase of the MJO, with the phases number 1 through 8 on the exterior of each shape. Typically, in the winter, cold weather is favored in the Central/East US when the MJO is in Phases 7, 8, 1 and 2, while warmer weather prevails in the remaining stages. The GFS Ensembles predict the MJO to translate eastward with time, shown well by the quick movement through Phases 4, 5, 6, and 7, arriving in Phase 8 around the mid-December timeframe. Hey, isn't that when we're supposed to get a cold blast? Yep, and the MJO moving into Phase 8 only re-assures this outlook.

But this time, things aren't as clear.

CPC

The graphic above shows the same Madden-Julian Oscillation forecast as the GFS Ensemble one above, but this one now shows the forecast from the prestigious European model, abbreviated as the ECMWF ensembles. These ensembles take the MJO through Phases 4, 5, and 6 rather quickly, but then the MJO event weakens, as ensembles minimize strength into that circle in the center, which indicates the MJO event is too weak to be put into a certain phase.
Big difference from the GFS ensembles, right? If this ECMWF forecast verified, the chances of a chilly mid-December would likely be on the decline. Of course, that East Asian component would play a role, but this ECMWF forecast could very well dampen the cold in areas.

So who do we believe? For now, we see the United Kingdom's UKMET and Japan's JMA model guidance supporting a GFS ensemble-like solution, where the MJO would move into those latter phases supportive of a cold weather event. I'll take a middle ground and stick with a weaker version of the GFS ensembles, but still keeping an eye on a full-on GFS ensembles solution.

Kyle Griffin

Now this is where the fun begins...

The image above shows the GFS model's forecasted jet stream wind speeds (colored regions), mean sea level pressure (black contours), and 1000-500mb thickness values (dashed red and blue lines).

WxMaps

The forecast s valid for the morning of December 7th, and tells us a lot about the coming weather pattern. On the right (if I'm aligning this post correctly), you'll see the current jet stream pattern laid out across the Northern Hemisphere. Notice the ragged jet stream in the Pacific, but there's a very strong ribbon of the jet crossing Eurasia and currently pushing into Japan. The model guidance above indicates this strong jet will shove off mainland Asia in a matter of days, overpowering the Pacific basin and shunting moisture towards North America. As this happens, and we see extratropical cyclone formation on the surface (as indicated by the tight black SLP contours in the image above), pressures will lower just west of the Gulf of Alaska, even into the basin itself. In response, high pressure will form along the West Coast, which then in turn creates a trough in the East US, and suddenly you've got yourself a cold start to the second full week of December. This brings the Typhoon Rule, stratospheric, and MJO concepts full-circle to favor a cold weather pattern for the December 7-17 period.

The 'fun' part is that moisture I mentioned earlier in that paragraph. As the jet forces that moisture east, it will dive into North America on the heels of a powerful jet stream. With aforementioned high pressure in the West and low pressure in the East, conditions look to be ripe for storm formation in the Central US in this December 7-17 timeframe. Depending on how the atmosphere unfolds closer to this event, it could end up being a decent winter storm.

ESRL

Top left: PNA Forecast
Top right: NAO Forecast
Bottom left: WPO Forecast
Bottom right: EPO Forecast

A quick refresher on the PNA and NAO...

The Pacific North American index involves what the atmosphere does in the northeast Pacific and the western coast of North America. When we see a stormy pattern in place over these regions, we call such a pattern a negative PNA, due to the below normal height anomalies in this region. In a similar sense, when high pressure dominates that same region, we call that a positive PNA. A negative PNA will bend the jet stream to give the storms to the Plains and the Deep South regions, frequently initiating high pressure system formations over the Central US. A Positive PNA will bring about an opposite response to high pressure (HP) over the West, and will have the stormy pattern evolve over the East US.
 The North Atlantic Oscillation involves the presence of a high pressure system over Greenland (negative NAO) or the presence of a low pressure system over Greenland (positive NAO). In the negative NAO, the jet stream will buckle into the Northeast to allow storms and cold to thrive in that region. The positive NAO denies this region any of these benefits.

Looking at the forecast at hand, the PNA is expected to spike positive and stay positive throughout the extended range. This comes as that jet stream makes its way into the Pacific, and resultant stormy weather in the Gulf of Alaska forces high pressure to form in the West US. The NAO, however, will remain positive. This could be a bit problematic. If we see a positive NAO and positive Arctic Oscillation (AO; +AO supports warm weather, -AO supports cold weather), as forecasts currently indicate, we may also see this cold weather set-up slip away. I'm not sold on that happening yet, and in addition to all the content above, here's why.

The image to the right shows the Climate Prediction Center's verification of Arctic Oscillation forecasts. From the long-long range forecasts on the bottom panel, to observed AO values for the same time on the top panel, we can see what, if any, biases models are retaining with the AO. If you can't read this sort of chart well (I don't blame you, this one's a bit tricky to maneuver), it can be summarized by saying model guidances tends to forecast the AO to be positive too often; it ends up negative more often than not in those cases. That's not to say this time around will see the positive forecasts drop, but it must be noted that model guidance is too "trigger-happy" about forecasting a positive Arctic Oscillation event. If the same holds true for this mid-December time period, we'd likely see a handful of colder outlooks.




To Summarize:

- A warm start to December is expected (December 1-7).
- A predominantly-cold weather event is anticipated in the middle portion of December (December 7-17).
- A storm system (possibly more than one) could be seen in this December 7-17 time period.
- Following a brief warm spell in the mid-late December period, things could turn stormy again in time for Christmas.

Andrew

Encounter With Polar Vortex On The Horizon in Early-Mid December

It now appears much of the United States will undergo its first encounter with the polar vortex in the second week of December.

Tropical Tidbits

The image above shows 500mb height anomalies over the Western Pacific on the evening of December 1st. In this image, we see what is very likely a lobe of the polar vortex passing just north of Japan, occluding and cutting north as it does so. Minimum values here at the 500mb level in this image, off the GFS ensembles, appear to drop close to 490 dam, an indication of either an incredibly strong upper level low, or the more-likely polar vortex lobe.
This situation appears similar to the case we had last winter, where we saw a very strong upper level low crash into Japan to round out the year 2013, which then led to incredibly cold weather in the first week of the new year.

ESRL
December 27, 2013

If we recall the Typhoon Rule, which states weather phenomena occurring over East Asia is reciprocated in the United States about 6-10 days later, we could expect a bout of  substantial cold here at home in the December 7-11 timeframe. Should this verify, which is becoming increasingly likely given model consistency, the Central and parts of the East US may expect a bout of intense Arctic air to hit in the middle of December.

But it doesn't end there...

Tropical Tidbits

The image above once again shows 500mb height anomalies from the GFS ensembles, now valid on December 6th. Notice that we still see below-normal heights over Japan. This means Japan has been under a strong upper level low's influence for nearly a week, and still going. Building off of the first graphic, it's quite possible that the United States may also undergo a harsh beating from cold weather for nearly a week straight. The degree of this cold air is still under examination, but if it's anything like the upper level low expected to trek north of Japan to open December, watch out.

To summarize:

- Japan looks to undergo severe cold weather to start off December, likely leading to a prolonged Arctic air intrusion in the US in the middle of December.

Andrew

Polar Vortex Split Occurring; Arctic Outbreak Possible in Mid-December

The stratospheric polar vortex has experienced a split as a result of its second interruption by warm air this season, and it appears some cold weather may be on the way as a result.

CPC

The chart above shows heat flux values over the 2014 calendar year, from January 1st to present day. In this graph, shifting our attention to November and December, we find that flux values have skyrocketed to near-record levels, only now beginning to drop down a bit. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), strong episodes of eddy heat flux events to the poles may result in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. You may recall that SSW events occur when wind direction in the stratosphere reverses from low pressure-favoring winds to high pressure-favoring winds. This decimates the polar vortex, and usually unleashes near-record intensity cold weather on whoever is in the line of fire about 2-4 weeks after the SSW event occurs. Considering we are seeing an eddy heat flux episode of this magnitude, it's no surprise the polar vortex is undergoing some serious damage.

FU-Berlin

The ECMWF forecast of height contours and temperatures (shaded) about 96 hours from now, at the 50 millibar level, shows a Wave 2 stratospheric intrusion event. For some clarification, let's remember that the stratosphere exists primarily from the 1 millibar to the 100 millibar level. Therefore, I'm using the 50mb level as a happy medium, per se, so we don't receive any tropospheric influences that may occur at the 100mb level, but also keep away from vortex events in the far upper stratosphere that will ultimately have little to no effect on the troposphere.
As for the Wave 2 event, stratospheric polar vortex split events are classified into a few 'Wave' numbers. Take a look at this image to see the difference between a Wave 1 and Wave 2 event.

NASA

This image here looks complicated to those who may not be as enthusiastic about the weather as others, so we will focus on the middle column. In that middle column, we essentially are seeing areas of low pressure in orange, and areas of higher pressure in blue. On the top row, a normal polar vortex form is displayed.

Wave 1 events indicate a very strong warming event or body of high pressure is forcing the polar vortex off the North Pole, while still keeping it in one piece.
Wave 2 events are seen on the bottom row, where a weaker, but still intense warming/high pressure event occurs, but now splits the vortex into two vortices.

Using that knowledge back on the ECMWF image, we can confirm that a Wave-2 stratospheric split has occurred.

Now, bearing in mind that it usually takes 2-4 weeks for stratospheric intrusions to result in cold air outbreaks on the surface, we flash forward to a potential chilly period in mid-December.

CPC

In the long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks to turn negative in about two weeks, right when the timeframe for any stratospheric consequences opens up. Many signals support the warm start to December ending around the middle of the month, and this stratospheric event only strengthens this potential.

To summarize:

- A stratospheric intrusion may result in a cold air outbreak in the middle of December.

Andrew