Mesoscale Discussion #47- Update on PDS Tornado Watch #5

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
VALID 230007Z - 230100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

A NARROW SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW EXISTS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY SW OF WW 5. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE
INTO WW 5...SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LEAD BAND OF TSTMS FROM INDEPENDENCE TO LAFAYETTE COUNTIES CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING TRENDS
AS CELLS MATURE WITHIN AN EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SECONDARY AREA OF CELLS HAVE INCREASED FARTHER W IN CO-LOCATION WITH
THE BAND OF GREATEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIVOTING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE. AS THIS IMPULSE EJECTS E/NEWD...BOTH AREAS OF TSTMS SHOULD
MORE RAPIDLY MATURE INTO WW 5 THIS EVENING...WITH THIS SCENARIO
APPEARING WELL REPRESENTED BY THE 21Z HRRR. HOWEVER THROUGH ABOUT
02Z...A SMALL CORRIDOR EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
/INCLUDING A TORNADO/ OVER SWRN AR.