Severe Weather Outbreak Likely- January 22, 2012

Risk of severe weather in general

Risk of a tornado
(15% may not seem like a lot, but from experience, when there is a 15% chance of a tornado, tornadoes usually strike.)

Today is a Severe Weather Action Day (SWAD Day), as tornadoes and damaging winds are likely with an outbreak of severe weather this afternoon into early Monday. Here is the public statement from the Storm Prediction Center

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
          EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          SOUTHERN INDIANA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
   MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY EVENING.  THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
   EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
   EARLY MONDAY...FURTHER INTENSIFYING IN THE PROCESS.  
   
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
   WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
   MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY. 
   AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
   USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
   
   A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
   LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
   AIR.
   
   AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF
   THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  THE TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER
   EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. 
   THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER
   TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
   SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER 

TODAY.

If you live in these areas, I am begging you to heed all warnings and watches issued by the National Weather Service. Too often people think the tornado won't strike their area. Tornado warnings are issued for an area that is truly at risk- it doesn't work like an isolated area is affected and the rest of the warning area is just in case. No, when a tornado warning is at risk, everyone in the warning box has an equal chance of being affected. 

Today looks like there will be a tornado outbreak of sorts, and i'm trying to minimize on the number of possible deaths. Stay safe and aware of the skies, everyone. We will begin live posting later this afternoon when the event ramps up.