Hourly Breakdown of Severe Weather (1/22/12)

6 PM CST Tonight

At 6 PM tonight, we will be seeing scattered bands of showers in Arkansas through the Southeast back up into Indiana and parts of east Illinois. These showers are harmless and will bring some clouds and rain to most of the regions affected at this point in time. The southern halves of Alabama and Georgia could see some stronger storms, as shown by the simulated radar reflectivity. I don't expect any severe weather to occur with these cells.

7 PM CST Tonight

At 7 PM, the light to moderate rain bands continue across Indiana, Illinois down through Arkansas and Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia, with no sign of anything severe just yet. Again, the southern halves of Alabama and Georgia may have to keep an eye to the sky as the WRF is projecting these cells to strengthen in size and somewhat in number at that hour.

8 PM CST Tonight

At 8 PM, it becomes clear that the severe weather event is getting underway, with a defined slanted band of rain and embedded thunder stretching from northeast Texas through Arkansas. The simulated radar is indicating that no significant severe weather should be occurring at 8 PM, but again, embedded thunder is likely. At this point, all preparations should be in place because this line of rain and thunder is going to be the squall line producing the severe weather.

10 PM CST Tonight

At 10 PM, the squall line is blowing up. Radar values over 50 dbz are widespread across east Arkansas and far west TN/KY. By now, I expect some severe weather reports to be filed, as intense rain, frequent lightning will be occurring at this point in time. Farther out east, showers are still ongoing, which may help to lessen the severe weather threat due to the clouds that may slightly suffocate the severe weather. However, seeing the strength of the squall line at this point tells me that won't be a problem.

Midnight CST

At midnight, it becomes apparent that this will be a widespread severe weather event extending from South Illinois into Arkansas, Missouri and back into Tennessee and Kentucky. This is only the midnight hour, before maximum strength has been reached by this squall line. I would be very surprised if no severe weather reports had been filed by now. I anticipate the big report to be damaging winds, as squall lines are usually not as well able to handle tornadic activity as they are damaging winds.

3 AM CST Monday (tomorrow)

At 3 AM, the severe weather is going nuts. The squall line now stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to Lake Michigan, with lightning, hail and damaging winds all the way between those two points.

It doesn't matter that one severe weather risk is more likely than the other- the point is that you have to be prepared for it. If you know what's going to happen but don't do anything and you get hit by a severe storm, there's no telling what could happen.
Be ready and stay safe.