Hurricane Ernesto To Landfall on Yucatan Peninsula Late Tonight

Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight at approximately midnight central time.

Latest indications are that Ernesto is moving to the west northwest at 15 MPH. Using rough estimates, I determined that the eye of Ernesto is about 110 miles from the Peninsula (any land, not just a city). Doing some simple calculations gives me a landfall time of about 10-11 PM CT. However, because the motion is to the northwest, another hour is added to the time for good measure.

Ernesto is currently a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 983 millibars and wind speeds of up to 80 MPH. This is a long way for Ernesto to come, as the past several days have resulted in multiple bursts of convection that failed to produce anything worthwhile.

Following the first landfall, emergence into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico is likely, where Ernesto will probably be a tropical storm. I believe Ernesto will then begin a more westward motion, as weaker tropical systems to, and hit Mexico as its second and final landfall. Restrengthening into a hurricane appears possible, but with limited time in the water (about 36 hours in waters close to land), that will be a tedious call. This landfall should happen between Thursday and Friday.

To recap:

-Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane.
-Landfall on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be roughly around Midnight CT.
-The first major population area affected will be Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Mexico.
-A second landfall on Mexico appears likely.

Andrew

Mid Atlantic In Severe Weather Threat for August 10

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk for the Mid Atlantic on Friday, August 10, as a major storm system digs into the Great Lakes.

The ECMWF is projecting a major storm system to drop into the Great Lakes and fire up some strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid Atlantic.
The system is not negatively tilted, but is also not positively tilted. Thus, the severe threat won't be horrible, but it also won't be too modest. Now, 850mb winds are pretty light in the outlined region above, which would not necessarily suggest a good severe weather event. However, 700mb winds are on the stronger side, which could enhance a tornado threat but also a damaging wind threat. Should this happen overnight, the lower level jet stream would be stronger, giving storms an edge to the severe weather threat.

It will be interesting to see how this threat evolves, with the GFS not showing a major instability sector and the ECMWF not showing intense lower level winds.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Restrengthening

Tropical Storm Ernesto

TS Ernesto has experienced a recent blow-up of convection on all fronts and has been able to maintain this convection as the dry air mass fades into oblivion, and warmer waters and better environmental conditions take over. The system is far from developing a core that it had not too long ago, but this certainly is a starting point for a system that has taken the beating of beatings over the past several hours.

Looking at the steering layer conditions, the energy associated with Ernesto appears to be following a current that takes the system more westward than anything, as the system will be fighting a flow that would slam Ernesto into Central America. That said, I feel that landfall on Ernesto will likely happen a bit farther south than what the NHC is forecasting (see below image). However, because the system is not in a heavily sheared area, and stronger storms tend to want to curve north, there remains the potential for a more northwest direction. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wobbles South; Gulf of Mexico Not At Risk

Overnight, Tropical Storm Ernesto took an unanticipated jump to the south, and this was the nail in the coffin for a system that is going up against harsh, dry air.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting a westward movement of Ernesto before taking a northwest turn and crashing into the Yucatan Peninsula. After landfall, Ernesto is anticipated to strengthen into a hurricane before landfalling in Texas. But what do other models say to that?

The latest 18z model suite suggests that Ernesto will follow the NHC track mentioned above and landfall into the Yucatan Peninsula and then Mexico. There is another agreement between a few models, where Ernesto remains too weak to go northwest and crashes into Central America before being spit out into the Eastern Pacific.

Analogs from hurricanes in similar situations as Ernesto indicate that a dying of the system occurred with the majority of models that hit the lower half of the Yucatan Peninsula. This does not bode well for Ernesto, which is already a mess at the moment, judging by satellite imagery below.

Andrew

Ernesto To Hit Mexico; Gulf Coast Threat Diminishes

After Ernesto makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, it will be too weak to rapidly strengthen and move northeast into the Gulf Coast.
An overnight wobble south was the nail in the coffin for any Gulf Coast landfall possibilities.

I will have a full post out later today.

Andrew