Saturday, July 31, 2010

Model Runs

NAM: Rain early this morning until noon or so, then clearing with chance for showers. Enlarged storm system to affect area on Day 10.

GFS: Rain continuing in area until noon then clearing with chance of showers. Storm system starts to slide into region on Day 10.

Summary: Both models are remarkably close together in today's run. However, the GFS model puts the storm system to begin affecting the area with stronger storms and showers later in Day 10 possibly into Day 11. The NAM puts the system to begin affecting the area with the main storms in Day 10, earlier than the GFS. Both models have rain clear out by noon today with chances of showers for the rest of the day.

Friday, July 30, 2010

300th post

Weather Word

Model Names

NAM- North American Model
GFS- Global Forecasting System

NAM and GFS model runs

NAM: The NAM model displays rain in our area in the 36-57 hour periods, also known as Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon has rain. On Saturday and possibly very late evening on Saturday there could be occasional showers popping up in our area.

GFS: The GFS model displays rain during hours 30-54, which is also known as one full day in Saturday afternoon till Sunday Afternoon. Showers will be present Friday afternoon this week, but will be extremely scattered if not isolated.

Summary: Both models are predicting rain throughout the weekend.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Weather Word: Critical Thickness

Critical Thickness is used in winter weather forecasting to define the line between rain and snow falling in a certain region.

Current Dewpoints by region:

In Illinois:

NE: 58-60
NC: 58-60
NW: 58-60
C: 64-70
EC: 64-70
WC: 64-70
In Indiana:

NW: 58-62

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Current Temperatures

Rockford: 77
Chicago: 79
Joliet: 79
Bolingbrook: 78
Clinton, IA: N/A
Gary, IN: 81

NAM and GFS model runs

Today

The NAM and GFS models matched up somewhat well in the local region from today until late Saturday into early Sunday. The NAM is predicting a line of storms to enter the region midday today, while the GFS predicts a line of storms to enter our area more in the afternoon, and slightly stronger than the NAM predicts.
They also both predicted that showers and storms are in the area on Saturday, but the GFS predicts that system moving slower than the NAM, and thus exiting later Saturday than shown by the NAM.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Tonight's Temperatures

Chicago: 79
Joliet: 76
Peoria: 72
Decatur: 73
Rockford: 74
Kankakee: 73
Bloomington: 72

IN:
Gary: 74

Tonight's forecast

Tonight will be partly cloudy and 74 in the northeast portions of the area, 75 by the lakefront, 73 in the west, 72 in the south areas, and 73 in NW IN.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Severe weather - Administrator Reference

-All Thermodynamics
-Bulk shear
-SR HElicity
-All Composite Indicies


ADMNSTR REF.

Heavy Rainfall Maps (administor reference)

-850mb moisture transport
-Precipitable water
-Precipitation potential placement

ADMNSTR REF.

Severe weather threat

Today's severe weather threat is rated 'VERY LOW'.
Today's heavy rain threat is rated 'VERY LOW'.
Today's tornado threat is rated 'EXTREMELY INSIGNIFICANT'
Tonight will be mostly clear skies with a low of 66 degrees Farenheight. Expect humidities to keep down the rest of the day but rise into tomorrow, likely into the 1- 1.5 inches of water in the air.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

1:03 CDT

Breezy and hot outside, wouldn't be surprised if these heat index values took on triple digits. Drink lots of water. Storms likely this afternoon, more likely to the south. CAPEs around 3000.

July 15 2010 Noontime Broadcast

video

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Current Temperature Isotherm lines

Current Modified analysis



Homemade current analysis

Weather World- Iowa

CAPES (Measure of instability) are at a STUNNING 8000 in Iowa.
2000= severe weather event threshold
4000+= extremely unstable.

If a SHOWER were to pop up in that area, i fully expect it to produce extreme hail, extreme winds, and violent tornadoes. But that's unlikely...for now.

Dew points are at 80 in that area as well.
temps in the 90's.

Pressure change (Midwest)

A pressure change of 1 has occured in the last few hours in the western US, and a 2 pressure point change has occured in the North Dakota area. This makes a conclusion of a low pressure system forming in the Southern Canada area.

Dew Points

Dew points: In Low to Mid 70's

Doppler Radar

Spotty showers to the south and west of Chicago

Visible Satellite

Spotty clouds

RUC model

No activity

GFS model

Showers and storms on Day 3
Showers on Day 4
Showers on Day 5
Potentially strong to severe storms on Day 6
Potentially strong storms on Day 7

NAM model

Showers and storms on day 2
Showers on Day 5

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Weather Ranking Scale

0-20: Brutal
21-30: Bad
31-44: Not Good
45-59: OK/Good
60-80: Nice
81-90: Great
91-100: Excellent

Notice

Now included: Weather Ranking

What it is: A rank of how good the weather is currently.

Current Weather Ranking (Local)

Current Local Weather Ranking: 45 (Not Good)

Reason: Mid 80's temps combined with humidity make for a treacherous day.

Current Conditions (Local)

Overcast and breezy, temperature in 80's.

Inches of moisture in air: 1.2 inches

Visible Satellite (Local)

Overcast in the local area.

Surface Analysis (Nation)

1:20pm CDT...

Occluded front over Southeast US...
High Pressure in Southwest US...
Cold Front in Northern Plains...
Low Pressure in Central Plains...
High Pressure in East Coast...
Dry in Gulf Coast...
Warm Front in Eastern Midwest...

-Racki

Water Vapor NWS Satellite (Local)

There is a patch of moisture increased ahead of a storm system in the local area.

-Racki

GOES Satellite Data (National)

Today, the GOES NOAA satellite is displaying spotty clouds in the East US, a complex of clouds in the Lower Great Lakes. Clouds are present in the Western US as well.

-Racki