Friday, July 8, 2011

July 8: NAEFS Ensemble Heat Wave Forecast

This is a temperature anomaly image from the NAEFS Ensemble model.
The above image depicts the likelihood of a heat wave over the next 7 days.

July 8: Tornado Warning- Napoleon, ND


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN KIDDER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHWESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NAPOLEON...OR 51 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  BISMARCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STREETER AND GACKLE.

How did the July 5 Phoenix Sandstorm Happen?

thecrimsoncrow.com
On the night of July 5, there was a monster sandstorm that hit Phoenix, Arizona, and made the city, according to witnesses, turn from "day to night". Many described it as something they had never seen it before. So, what caused it?
There were several strong storms in the area on the night of July 5. All thunderstorms have updrafts, which is rising warm air, and downdrafts, which are sinking cool air. These downdrafts can also be called outflows, as they hit the ground and spread out in all directions.
This particular outflow was strong, and threw up massive amounts of dust. As the outflow boundary continued north from Casa Grande, with continued to throw up more and more dust. Cloud tops were likely over a thousand feet high, judging by pictures taken during the sandstorm.

Ring of Fire Potential July 16

There is potential for a Ring of Fire to set up  from Colorado up to the US/Canada border around N. Dakota and stretching into the Northeast.
What we have above is a 500 mb chart. A 500 millibar chart displays areas of high and low pressures up in the atmosphere. Areas in orange and red are areas of low pressure system, while areas of blue are regions of high pressure, the same as a high pressure region on a surface analysis map.

The blue region in the Central Plains denotes an area of high pressure. It also floods the nation's eastern 2/3 parts with extremely hot temperatures. This is called the Ring of Fire, due to the hot temperatures and how the high pressure (also called a ridge) pushes the jet stream north into an arcing shape around the ridge.

With an area of low pressure moving east on the US/Canada, there is concern for a big severe weather event if a cold front pushes through. Below is a Day 7 surface analysis.
The warm front attached to that area of low pressure is being overtaken by the cold front. It also creates the large area of calm weather and high pressure, with the exception of a trough in Nebraska and Kansas.

We will monitor this situation. This will likely change, being 8 days away, but stay tuned as we monitor it.

July 8: Tornado Warning- Pingree, ND


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODWORTH...OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  JAMESTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EDMUNDS AND PINGREE.

July 8: Tornado Warning (Confirmed Tornado)- Dodge, ND


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/

* AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR DODGE...OR 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  DICKINSON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  ZAP AROUND 555 PM CDT.
  HAZEN AROUND 620 PM CDT.

July 8: Tornado Warning (Funnel Cloud Spotted)- Britton, SD


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 542 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 7
  MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF BRITTON. A
  TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC
  STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MARSHALL
  COUNTY.

July 8: Tornado Warning- Breien, ND


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLASHER...OR 32 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BREIEN.

Hurricane Calvin (Cat. 1)- July 8 Evening Discussion

Hurricane Calvin is a Category 1 hurricane in the East Pacific Ocean. Current winds are at 65 knots, and Calvin is forecast to move to the west northwest and weaken.
There are no warnings or watches in effect for Calvin at this time. Calvin is moving away from land, and is forecast to weaken as it does so.
There is some debate over the forecasted intensity of Calvin as we move over the next several hours. Many models keep the strength at Category 1 for at least the rest of the day.

I just took some time off from posting (my apologies to anyone who was affected by that) to regain my energy. However, we will be back posting tonight and in the foreseeable future.