For those concerned, here's a real-time image of Philippe.
Friday, September 30, 2011
The ECMWF model is showing an ominous system near Cuba at hour 240 that may be a tropical system. This is the first time the ECMWF is shedding light on the possibility, but if it does form, the ECMWF indicates wind shear will be high as per the high pressure system in the Mid-Atlantic. Wind shear is good for tropical systems, but too much of it can literally tear the system apart. At the moment, this 12z run of the ECMWF indicates a lot of wind shear to the north of this projected system, which would hinder its development. This is the only model to be showing it, but we will keep up to date on it nonetheless.
Any accumulation that does occur will melt quickly.