Friday, September 30, 2011

18z GFS displays concerning image for Northeast

The Long-Range GFS is painting a concerning picture for the Northeast. What we have here appears (keyword is appears) to be a tropical system- the tropical system that is currently Tropical Storm Philippe. This is hour 288 on the GFS, so it can be considered unreliable, but I am watching this one more closely than I would with other systems because: A) The system responsible for this potential landfall (TS Philippe) is already stirring in the ocean, thus the models are full of data. B) My gut instinct is telling me this might happen. I'm not saying you should trust my gut, but it's something to think about.
For those concerned, here's a real-time image of Philippe.

Ophelia Heads Out to Sea with Final Burst of Strength

The Category 3 Hurricane we know as Ophelia is on a track that will whisk her away out to sea. I was surprised to find Ophelia at Category 3, and makes me think this is her final farewell. All guidance indicates she will be going out to sea, but this is certainly one of the more impressive eye formations I have seen this hurricane season.
Forecast Guidance

ECMWF model showing Ominous Potential Tropical System Near Cuba at Hour 240

The ECMWF model is showing an ominous system near Cuba at hour 240 that may be a tropical system. This is the first time the ECMWF is shedding light on the possibility, but if it does form, the ECMWF indicates wind shear will be high as per the high pressure system in the Mid-Atlantic. Wind shear is good for tropical systems, but too much of it can literally tear the system apart. At the moment, this 12z run of the ECMWF indicates a lot of wind shear to the north of this projected system, which would hinder its development. This is the only model to be showing it, but we will keep up to date on it nonetheless.

Cool Air Mass will succumb to Warm Air in the next week

GFS Ensemble members are indicating that the cool air mass currently in place will be pushed away into the Atlantic, and a warm air mass will take its place, giving cities like Chicago, Milwaukee 70's and sun after a week of clouds and rain. This warm air mass will be around for about 5 days before a front comes through the region (possibly with thunderstorms) and brings temperatures back down again.

SnowCAST- September 29, 2011 (Valid September 31, 2011)

We have been watching the potential of snow for the last several days in the Northeast, and it now appears likely there will be some snow, possibly accumulating, in the Northeast region. If there is to be any accumulation, totals will be at or below 2 inches, with the best chance for accumulation in the West Virginia area. The region outlined in lighter blue is where flurries are possible, but where accumulation is unlikely or will be below .5 inches.
Any accumulation that does occur will melt quickly.
Next 5 days to get wet and wild in the Northeast:

West Virginia could see 2 inches of snow this weekend

Portions of West Virginia may get in on up to 2 inches of snow this upcoming weekend. It is anticipated this snow will melt quickly after it falls. It is anticipated to melt on Sunday, and the snow will likely be slushy.