This roughly-2 year chart of the SOI shows that the La Nina was very well defined in summer-fall-winter 2010-2011, and even in 2011-2012. However, as of recently, the SOI has been all over the place. It has mainly been in negative territory, but the fact that it is usually above -8.0 (the threshold for an El Nino is -8.0 or below) during the last few months tells me that the SOI is not recognizing the presence of an El Nino.
I believe that this winter will hold a neutral ENSO, possibly warm neutral (above 0.0 but not above 0.5) . I have yet to nail down exactly the analogues appropriate for that situation, but I will find it and give it to you ASAP.