Thursday, November 17, 2011

Totals Over 1 Foot of Snow Possible in South Dakota for Weekend Snowstorm

Maximum projected snow depth from weekend snowstorm
Totals may reach as high as 12 inches of snow in isolated spots of extreme southwest South Dakota if this forecast from the 12z GFS is to verify. This snowstorm will be fast moving, so accumulations more toward Minnesota and Wisconsin will be lighter, ranging in the 1-3 inch range. Some lake effect snow may fall in the Wisconsin Great Lakes region, but it will be light if any does fall.
Here's our current accumulation forecast (subject to change).

Southwest South Dakota: 4-10 inches, isolated 12 inches
Rest of South Dakota: 2-5 inches, isolated 6-8 inches, mainly in northern region of the state
Minnesota: 1-3 inches, isolated 4-5 inches in west Minnesota
Wisconsin (Minus Lake-effect regions): Trace-2 inches, isolated 3 inches.
Lake-Effect Wisconsin Regions: 1-3 inches, isolated 4-5 inches closer to lakes.

Thanksgiving Forecast- Warm Across The Board

This year's Thanksgiving is projected to be a warm one across the country. It appears the Northern US will be hit with especially warm temperatures, with 850mb temperature anomalies of as high as 15 degrees above normal for that region. The only place of the country that may have potential for cooler than normal temperatures would be the extreme southwest US. The rest of the country will likely experience normal temperatures, or more likely, warmer than normal temperatures.

WRF Gives Snow to South Dakota This Saturday

The WRF model is giving South Dakota a little snowstorm this weekend. It is projected to come on a fast moving piece of energy, so accumulations won't be horrible. However, snow rates may fall heavy enough so that 4 inches of snow may fall, as per today's 6z GFS model. Isolated totals of 6 inches, depending on how long the snow falls and how heavy it will fall, are possible for the region.