Many have been discounting this system as an outlier, and this continues, even as this is not the first time the bombing-out solution has been shown with Isaac. A very similar solution and slightly different track was shown yesterday by the ECMWF.
Now, it's a model war, like the ones we will see in winter: ECMWF vs. GFS for Isaac's track. Let's look at a major component of the track.
The question is if the disturbance's influence will be enough to force Isaac north and take an East Coast-threatening track, like the GFS and others say, or will the system be able to pass by the strong northeast winds and pass into the Gulf of Mexico, where a dangerous scenario could unfold, as the ECMWF describes.
I did some deep digging and came upon an observation chart for 12z at 250mb. I also found the 12z GFS' 12z initialization chart at 250mb. I compared the two, and found slightly stronger winds in the GFS' forecast. While it may not seem huge now, the implications could be massive in the long range.
Now, let's check out the 2010 and 2011 model performance statistics for the Atlantic. We will start with 2010.
Moving on to 2011.
So, now with two runs of a major Gulf Coast threat under its belt, along with two best model track skill awards, one can not help but wonder if the ECMWF is correct in the assumption that the Gulf Coast is indeed at risk. I, for one, like to keep all options on the table. Frankly, I think the ECMWF is correct, and past analogs with a similar situation as Isaac think so too...