I will be coming out with a piece concerning the Lezak Recurring Cycle later on, as something is peaking my interest in coming weeks.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Looking over ECMWF, ECMWF Ensemble MSLP forecasts yield nothing of major concern. However, looking over the GFS brings up a low pressure system that appears to be stationary over the far southern Gulf of Mexico region. Intensity of this system appears to be low, but nonetheless a stationary system can warrant watching, as we are approaching the start of hurricane season. That said, I have delineated a 'Low' risk area for tropical development over the next week. Because forecasts beyond 4 days are somewhat untrustworthy, this Low risk is on the bottom end of the spectrum.