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The major Thanksgiving storm that I made the call for a couple days ago will still happen- however, now the storm system will be forced offshore thanks to a positive NAO.
(Originally published November 10)This is a 500mb height anomaly forecast, valid a few days out. As you can see, there isn't much going on in the United States, so why am I showing you this? Well, we have to go to East Asia for that answer. If you look in the top left corner of the image, you will see a strong trough present in East Asia. It has been shown that there is a 6-10 day gap between what happens in East Asia and what happens in the East US. So, if we use this forecast (valid November 13) and apply the 6-10 day gap to it, we end up at November 22, or a day or two from Turkey Day.
We can also use the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), which is, in the simplest of simple explanations, a repeating pattern that forms every fall and cycles through the winter. This pattern first forms in September-October. A strong storm system hit the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes on October 2. If we use the expected 51 day gap between each cycle and add on a day or two to give the forecast a little wiggle room, we find this strong storm system hitting the Midwest/Great Lakes on November 21-23, which falls right on Thanksgiving!
•The Major Thanksgiving storm will still verify- but it will be directed offshore.
•The Plains may get in on some wintry fun, however.
•Warmth expected for the South.