Sunday, May 8, 2011

International Forecasts to be Discontinued

Effective this summer, The Weather Centre will not be issuing international forecasts.
We feel that The Weather Centre is more for the United States.
We do apologize for the inconvenience, and we hope you have a good day.

May 9-11 Severe Weather Event: 12z GEFS CAPE values unbelievable (Issued May 8)

CAPE- A measure of instability. > 2000 is considered unstable, anything higher than 4000 is considered dangerously unstable.

The 12z GEFS model, which is the ensemble of the GFS model, is painting a disturbing picture. That picture is the chance for CAPE values over 4000, which is rare to start off with.
Below is that chance.
90%+ chance is extremely eye catching, because it signifies that the atmosphere will be much more dangerous than originally thought. More on this later.

Mother's Day Forecast 2011

Your Mother's Day will be a wet one if you live in the East Coast, where some light showers are likely. Even into Tennessee and Missouri, some showers cannot be ruled out.
Unfortunately, severe weather is likely in South Dakota with showers to the north of that.
Blowing dust will make for a dusty Mother's Day in the Southeast.
The Rockies will be drenched with rain as well.
Temperatures are also going to be very nice across the region. The South and even into the Plains may flirt with 90 degrees. The Midwest will get 70's, possibly 80's in the southern portions.
The Northwest will be cooler than the rest of the nation, with maximum temperatures into the 50's.
The Southeast will be a toasty 90 in some spots, and the East Coast should stay within the 60-75 degree range.
Happy Mother's Day!

April 27 Aftermath: Total Death Toll reaches 337

The confirmed final death toll from the April 27 tornado outbreak has reached 337.
It can be expected that some more deaths will be reported from injuries.

May 9-11 Severe Weather Threat: CAPE Values through the roof (Issued May 8)

CAPE- A measure of instability. The higher the values, the more instability. Severe storms begin at 2000 j/kg.

The GEFS ensembles have been continuous at saying CAPE values could be through the roof into this severe weather event.
Below is the chance of CAPE values over 250 j/kg.
Below is the chance of CAPE values over 500 j/kg.
Below is the chance of CAPE values over 2000 j/kg.
Below is the chance of CAPE values over 4000 j/kg.
Anyone in the 2000 j/kg and/or 4000 j/kg chances should be watching this event develop.

Much of U.S. under Red Flag Warning (Issued May 8)

Much of the United States is under a red flag warning, meaning there is a fire danger in the area.
Below is the current US Hazards map at the time of publishing.
All of Arizona and all of New Mexico are under this red flag warning.
Additionally, West Texas, West Oklahoma, South Utah, the southern 2/3 of Colorado are under this fire danger.
Anyone in those areas should be watchful of any matches that are lit and make sure anything that could catch fire should be carefully stored away.

May 8th Risk of Severe Weather (Issued May 8)

There is a risk for severe storms today across portions of the Upper Plains.
Below is the overall risk.
Areas in the slight risk include:
-South Dakota
-North Missouri
-East half of Nebraska
-Southeast Minnesota

Below is the tornado risk
Areas at best risk for tornadoes include:
-East Nebraska
-West South Dakota

Below is the risk for damaging winds
Areas at best risk for damaging winds include:
-Southwest Iowa
-Portions of west South Dakota
-East Nebraska
-Extreme North Missouri

Below is the areas with the risk of hail.
People in the best risk for hail include:
-East Nebraska
-Southeast South Dakota