Friday, May 11, 2012

Tornado Watch #274

Real-time radar
Strong to severe thunderstorms are firing in eastern Texas, and these storms have the potential to become severe. A tornado watch is in effect for southeast Texas until 2:00 AM CDT.

A few severe and potentially rotating storms are present just inside the watch box, and these are expected to have some more tornadic characteristics than are currently present. However, based on several indices, I am not seeing conditions supportive for tornadoes at this time. Considering the watch stretches overnight, this may very well change, but rotation indices are not supportive in the areas that are being watched.
There is an area of elevated surface frontogenesis values out to the west, which may be the ignition for some more storms later on. That, combined with deep moisture convergence, indicate that energy is there for storms in general.

Atlantic Tropical Troubles May Be Brewing

Figure 1- MSLP at hour 306 of the 12z FIM.

Figure 2- 10m winds (knots) at hour 306 of the 12z FIM.
Tropical troubles may be brewing for the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, as the latest FIM model is showing tropical storm-status winds present in the waters south of Cuba.
Per images from more recent timeframes from this same 12z FIM run, here are some key points:

•The system looks to begin and strengthen originally to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula.
•A shift north-northeast looks likely following the formation.
•Florida would indeed be at some risk level should this happen.
•An out to sea solution appears to be the likely one at this time.

All of the above statements are subject to potentially major changes, as we are far away from this timeframe.
However, now is the best time to bring about concern, as warnings must be given as soon as is reasonably possible.


East Pacific Invest 90 - May 11, 2012

Eastern Pacific Invest 90 has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and indications are that the storm may reach major hurricane status. Let's take a look.

Latest storm tracks have two sets of tracks- one with a more westward bias, and a tighter consensus (that quickly fans out) for the storm to move eastward. I would rather go with the eastern bias for now due to the abundance of models with that track.

The intensity forecasts are slightly more intimidating. Right now, every model has this storm reaching tropical storm status in the next 24-36 hour period. Beyond that, there are indications that hurricane status may be achieved, but that involves only a handful of models. This looks to be mainly a tropical storm-lower end hurricane event.

We will keep you up to date on EP Invest 90.

Florida May Be Brushed By Tropical System in Late May

The FIM model continues to project a tropical system to impact the Caribbean region and may even scrape Florida through the East Coast. As of now, no landfalls on the US appear to happen in this 0z FIM run, but other regions do look to get in on the action.

Wind speeds appear to surpass tropical storm speed on this FIM run, valid for May 24th. Considering the strongest winds are on the eastern side of this system, if this solution did verify, Florida would likely be spared the worst wind damage. However, flooding is a different story with all tropical systems, as they are all laden with over-abundant moisture.
I did check the precipitation charts for this, and it does appear that upwards of 2 inches is possible in a 6 hour period for Florida, though more possible in Cuba, should this verify.

Remember- this is a long range forecast and the chances of this exact solution of verifying are low.