Wednesday, May 16, 2012

'Super Storm' on FIM Has Past Relations with LRC

EDIT at 8:55 PM CDT (5/16): Severe weather report graphic was replaced.
The latest FIM model is blowing up a storm system in the eastern Rockies on the 25th to as low as 982 millibars, or slightly lower. This is definitely the strongest system I have seen in a while. (Granted, I don't exactly check out all the long range models on a daily basis)

This has, in fact, happened before. Let's take a look. Here is what happened in the 500mb level on Saturday, April 14.

We can see a strong storm system digging deep into the Southwest, with another area of lower pressures located just north of Montana. The system in the Southwest does appear to be very intense, judging by the depression in the pressure lines running across the graph. Of interest is also the ridge of high pressure in the eastern US, and the storm system offshore the Mid Atlantic, characterized by the depression of the pressure lines.

Severe weather reports do indicate that a tornado outbreak did occur (or a few cells with long tornadoes), and this could indeed happen again. The details will have to be worked out at a later date, however.
Now, let's take a look to what the FIM is showing going into the 27th of May.

The FIM is showing a deep low pressure system moving into the Southwest as well, with a storm system (potentially tropical) offshore the Southeast and a strong ridge in the East. Does this look familiar? It should. Now, some details still have to be sorted out, but this does appear to match up with the Lezak Recurring Cycle time of about 45-50 days for each cycle. That said, a severe weather event should be expected in the late May timeframe if the LRC holds true.

Props to the AccuWeather Forums for their extensive knowledge on the subject.


Tropical Storm Aletta To Quickly Weaken in Midst of Dry Jet Stream

This image is from the ADT agency, or Advanced Dvorak Technique, from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclone tracking page. In the red and blue boxes, we have the center of the system. Notice the convection still ongoing around the front flank of the system. These storms should quickly dissipate as they approach and are sucked into the jet stream. The track continus to call for a general west northwestward direction before a turn to the north and eventually northeast as the jet stream takes hold.