**Notice: Due to continued confidence in my February 21-23 forecast, there will not be a new post.**
Shown above is a side-by-side comparison of the European ensemble set for Hour 144, or a week away from today. The left side shows 850 millibar temperatures and mean sea level pressure, while the right shows 500 millibar heights and mean sea level pressure. The European ensembles are predicting a pretty strong storm system to hit just south of Chicago, IL at this timeframe, in a solution that would most certainly bring accumulating snow to portions of the Plains and Midwest. A quick background on the European ensembles: They originate from the European model, which is a very accurate model, widely regarded as the best forecasting model in the world at the moment. This means its ensemble set, which is composed of 52 individual members, is also very prestigious. Think about the accuracy of the European model, and multiply it by 52. That's the European ensemble set for you. Additionally, the fact that it is showing such a strong storm this far out means there are individual ensemble members that are much stronger with this system, as these images are a mean of all the members combined. That said, there are also individual ensemble members that are weaker than this mean. Just a little something to keep in mind.
The 500 millibar forecast on the right signals the presence of elongated high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a general lack of pressure anomalies in the Rockies, which concerns me. If you want to map out a storm's track, you want to have at least some signal from the Rockies, as its placement upstream of the Eastern US means it does have a profound influence on what the storm will do.
I'm not saying this storm will happen. But if it did happen, I don't think we would see the storm go into the Midwest. I have a better time believing that the atmosphere will favor a more suppressed storm, possibly something that could affect the East Coast. Again, this is all with a lot of uncertainty, this is just what I'm looking at right now.
Please no questions about snow for your area; it's worthless to ask this far out.