Thursday, June 14, 2012

Tropics May Light Up in the Not-So-Distant Future

I am tracking the potential for the tropics to come to life in not a very long period of time at all. I am using the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) to help predict this potential.

In the MJO, each phase involves the eastward progression of precipitation anomalies across the Indian and Pacific Oceans and eventually into the Atlantic. Tropical cyclone potential is heightened in the areas of green, as this signifies above normal tropical convection. That said, Tropical Storm Carlotta in the East Pacific is likely from the MJO, which is about to move into Phase 8.
Now, since the MJO is indeed moving into Phases 8 and possibly 1, tropical convection will be strengthening in the region. Let's look at the ensemble system from the ECMWF Ensemble system.

The EMOM model is projecting tropical convection to continue sitting in Phases 8 and 1, and possibly into 2, indicating that convection will be ongoing in the Atlantic region. If that does happen, we could very easily see the tropics ignite. This whole set-up will definitely have to be watched very closely.