Sunday, December 11, 2011

Want to know your town's personal winter forecast?

Comment on this post with the town you would like to have a winter forecast made for.
You may want to comment your town quickly, because we tend to inadvertently become a little generic on the last few forecasts.
Towns will be accepted thru December 20.

December 20 Snow Event (Midwest Affected) (Updated 12/11)

12z runs of both
There are very substantial differences between the GFS ENS (Ensembles) and the GFS at hour 216, supposedly when a winter storm is to affect the Midwest. The ensembles have been saying that a piece of energy will move NE from Texas and affect the Midwest and Ohio Valley as shown on the right. The GFS OP (Operational, the actual thing, not the ensembles) prefers to send this piece of energy along the Gulf coast and northward, bombing out into a coastal storm on the East Coast.
We are leaning towards the GFS ENS right now, because the actual models do not fare well during a pattern change, which is currently starting. That said, it is best to go towards the ensembles.
Some notes on other 12z models as they come in...

12z NOGAPS is very similar to 12z GFS OP at hour 144, likely takes path shown on left image at the top.