...that you could cook a steak in 2 hours on a car dashboard in Oklahoma City 2 days ago.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
|Latest global SST (Sea Surface Temperature)|
Atmospheric conditions remain telling of La Nina conditions, and in recent weeks, SST and underwater temperatures have been rapidly cooling down.
In weekly animations of the ENSO SST's, it is very noticeable that this cooling has been occurring over the last month, if not more.
As of right now, information has been streaming in, consisting of potential of a West Based La Nina, which would basically torch the East US temperature wise and be the opposite of what we had last year. Obviously, this will be subject to a lot of change, and we will issue more updates as needed.
Related: 2011-2012 Winter Forecast
The big question is whether the expected La Nina will be 'East-Based' or 'West-Based'. Last year, there was a strong East Based La Nina. That made south Europe be cold, and SE Europe had above average precipitation, while north Europe had a less harsh winter than 2009-2010.
Right now, it's too far out to tell, but because it will likely be a La Nina that happens this winter, we will go with an East Based La Nina.
Another edition will be released this fall.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 600 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOULTON MAINE TO 25 MILES WEST OF BANGOR MAINE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
This storm cluster is moving along the cold front. This cold front will eventually move into the North Illinois, North Iowa, and similar areas tonight into tomorrow. Some showers and storms will move along the front in that time frame, with some of them possibly becoming elevated, and a small chance of them becoming severe. We will monitor that situation.
Dora's intensity forecasts indicate she will be weakening soon, which is a good solution as Dora is heading towards cooler waters. Ensemble tracks pretty much go along with the NHC track. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for the Baja California or Mexico, but rough surf is expected.