Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Long-Range GFS Gives Snow to Wisconsin, Iowa

The latest available Long Range GFS is showing a system giving snow to Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri. Wisconsin may get up to 4 inches of snow out of this. If it verified. However, since it is the Long Range GFS, we don't get too excited about it. We will track this, but not carefully.

Long-Range GFS Predicts 'Megastorm' over Minnesota similar to last year

Pre Reading notes: This image is out of date and is being shown only as a cool photo.

Yesterday, the Long-Range GFS put up an image showing the possibility of another 'Megastorm' originating over the Minnesota area, not unlike the superstorm last year. Here's the outdated image from hour 384 of the GFS.

Pennsylvania, New York could get in on some Snow by Sunday

There is potential for some snow flakes to begin flying in parts of West New York and Pennsylvania. The image below shows projected surface precipitation on Saturday at 8 AM EDT. The blue dashed line is what's known as the 540 line- the line typically separating rain and snow areas. Places south of the 540 line get rain, regions above the 540 get snow. Below is the image for Saturday at 8 AM EDT.

If you look closely, you can see the blue dashed line sagging southward and encompassing portions of New York and Pennsylvania. That said, there is indeed a potential for snow. The question is- how much?
Many of you probably aren't ready for winter (mentally or physically), but the good thing is that any snow that happens to fall will melt, as that 540 line will fly back north into Canada. Here's the details as of now:

-The models are not forecasting any snow to fall
-There is potential, but it is low
-Flakes flying in the air if this turns out is a possibility
-Accumulation above .1 inches is unlikely for now.
Threat of heave rain somewhat low- threat still present, though. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
Still more rain expected this afternoon in the ohio valley