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Monday, October 17, 2011
The center of Invest 95L has moved over land again and left the main area of convection off to the east. In the image above, you can see the center of the invest over land while the rain has moved to the northeast and towards Florida. With this latest development, the possibility of this invest becoming a tropical system is much more unlikely and now probably will not happen. However- as these storms move to the northeast, Florida will be receiving some heavy rains. you can see the projected 1 day rain totals below.
The models this morning are the bearers of bad news as they continue to depict Florida getting hit with a landfall from a tropical system in coming days. It looks like both statistical and dynamical models are in agreement in this solution, with only a few outliers taking a different, unfavored solution. Below is the projected wind speed in knots.