Monday, October 17, 2011

NOTICE- Please Read

We will be experimenting with a new template for the blog from 6 am tomorrow to about 4 pm CDT. After that viewing period, we will put up a poll asking you what you thought of the template. If we get over a 60% majority of 'yes', we will switch to the new template. If we get over 40% 'no', we will keep the old template.

Nor'easter to make the Northeast Wet and Wild!

The low pressure system currently over the Yucatan Channel will move northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and move into Florida. As it goes into Florida, over 4 inches of rain is possible. That's just where the fun begins. The low will hug the East Coast and move up along the area. As it does so, the system will 'bomb out', meaning pressures in the system will drop in large amounts rapidly, meaning rapid and significant strengthening. This is the type of storm that produces huge snows in the winter across the Northeast region. However, since it is fall, the precipitation type will be rain. Adding to the significant rains, it will be very windy, with sustained winds at or above 20 MPH in the most affected areas.

Center of Invest 95L Moves Over Land Again; Development Less Likely

The center of Invest 95L has moved over land again and left the main area of convection off to the east. In the image above, you can see the center of the invest over land while the rain has moved to the northeast and towards Florida. With this latest development, the possibility of this invest becoming a tropical system is much more unlikely and now probably will not happen. However- as these storms move to the northeast, Florida will be receiving some heavy rains. you can see the projected 1 day rain totals below.
Some areas of Florida may have very localized totals of 2 inches of rain in a one day period! Since this tropical system is no longer a concern for Florida, it is a concern for the Northeast. This system will race up the coast and 'bomb out'- that is, have its pressures drop rapidly and the system intensify. If you didn't understand that, it means that this system will become a 'Nor Easter'. We will have a discussion on that prospect out at 6:00 pm CDT

6z Models Only Enhance Florida Tropical Concern

Dynamical Models
Statistical Models
(You can read about the difference in statistical and dynamical here)
The models this morning are the bearers of bad news as they continue to depict Florida getting hit with a landfall from a tropical system in coming days. It looks like both statistical and dynamical models are in agreement in this solution, with only a few outliers taking a different, unfavored solution. Below is the projected wind speed in knots.
These wind speeds really aren't strong enough for a hurricane but do appear to be strong enough for a tropical depression/storm at some point in time. Besides- the wind is not the only effect- rainfall amounts will certainly be watched as the storm affects the US. Here is 5-day rainfall forecasts for the US.
You can definitely see the rainfall effect this storm is projected to have on Florida, as well as how the system will ride the coast and produce rain in that area as well. The National Hurricane Center has upped the chance of development in the next 48 hours to 60%. Below is a satellite image of the system.
It should be noted that this system does have a good amount of convection going on right now, as well as near-tropical storm force winds over the Yucatan Channel. These thunderstorms are also becoming better organized. That, combined with an increase in wind speed, is a sign this system is getting serious about developing into a tropical system.