Friday, October 28, 2011

18z NAM Brings Spots of 20 Inch Totals to Northeast

The 18z NAM is bringing areas of 20 inch totals to the Northeast, and unless the tedious GFS model takes this solution too, it's unlikely there will be a solution in between the NAM/GFS in terms of snowfall amounts. We will bring the totals from the GFS shortly.

Early Season Snowstorm Looks to Crush Northeast under 18 inches of Snow

This is a special briefing brought to you by The Weather Centre on the upcoming early season snowstorm for the Northeast Region this weekend.

Points included in this briefing are:
•Summary of Storm Accumulation Forecasts
•Safety Tips
•Dates for Further Briefings


It is a done deal that there will be a snowstorm this weekend in the Northeast. With the models coming in with little to no change on the situation this afternoon, chances for a significant change in the models are now practically nothing. That said, let's get to the accumulation forecasts. We have localized forecasts and regional forecasts. Let's start with localized.

12z NAM Snowfall Forecast for the Northeast
If you don't realize how much snow the red area is, you're about to- Anyone in the red area is subject to 15 inches AT LEAST should this model verify. That's right- 15 inches. This is the NAM model at its best. We see a huge swath of huge snows. The NAM has been showing this for a while now, but not at this much snow for this big an area. Coastal cities will see a large cutoff- that is, extremely varied snowfall totals over a small area. This image is not gospel, though, and we are hesitant to trust it, to say the least. 18 inches is a LOT of snow, and any model that shows more than a foot is dealing with a very large amount of uncertainty from human forecasters that encounter this data. We are watching it, but we feel it is best to wait than trust this huge snowmaker model.

12z GFS Model Snow Forecast for the Northeast
The GFS is definitely more toned down, with only a small patch of red. However, there are large areas of pink and blues. The darkest blue indicates a MINIMUM of 8 inches, with pink at a MINIMUM of 12 inches. Needless to say, the GFS and NAM are on a similar track when saying that big snowfall may occur. At this point in time, we will be more conservative with snowfall totals and go with the GFS, as we don't have enough confidence in the NAM. That may change with the 18z model info coming out around 5 tonight.

Let's move on to region forecasts.

This is the NAM, if you could tell.
This is indeed the NAM model on a regional scale. Notice the large swath of red on the map for the Northeast. Again, this is a very large amount of snow. The thing we are waiting for is for either the GFS to go up in snowfall or for the NAM to go down. That should happen very soon, but if it doesn't, we will take the middle road and assume a foot is a fairly good possibility. However, that will happen when/if we come to it.


This is a very early system storm, and there are a lot of things that are different than a typical coastal storm in the middle of winter. First, trees may still have leaves in the region. With windy conditions putting stress on the trees as leaves act as a sail to a sailboat, the very heavy snow will weigh on the trees and undoubtedly make them break. As these trees break, they may catch on power lines. DO NOT touch downed power lines. They are likely LIVE. You may be electrocuted. 
Here's a few safety tips.

•Don't touch downed power lines. NO MATTER WHAT.
•Take frequent breaks while shoveling- heart attacks have been recorded due to too much work.
•If your power goes out, unplug electrical appliances- the power surge when power comes back on can damage electrical appliances.
•Keep a watchful eye on your trees, and prepare for falling trees on your property.


 Tonight- 7:00 PM CDT
Tonight- 8:00 PM CDT
Tomorrow- Frequent, un-timed updates.

6z NAM Puts Down A FOOT of SNOW in Philadelphia

This morning's 6z NAM has come out with potentially a foot of snow for Philadelphia and more just to the north. That pinkish shade you see in the snowfall potential is up to 15 inches of snow.
We would give you the 6z NAM, but that map for snowfall has not updated to 6z yet.
With this potentially historic early snowfall event comes a massive danger. People's property and maybe lives are at risk during this storm.

If you live in the Northeast and are in the path of this storm...
-Have enough food to go for several days without power. Trees and power lines WILL break due to heavy snow.
-Travel if absolutely necessary. It is very possible your car could get hit by a falling branch and you may get injured.
-Watch power lines near your house for signs of straining. If they look like they are sagging under snow, unplug electrical appliances as power may suddenly go out with damaging consequences to electrical appliances.

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