Thursday, November 25, 2010

Arctic OUTBREAK?!??

That's right, folks! An Arctic outbreak could occur in the East Great Lakes area on December 9th.

In the above picture, we see the Jet Stream diving south from the Canadian regions. It will mainly affect the Nation's Heartland, but the Great Lakes could get in on the action.

The probability of this in the Great Lakes is 14% to 29% according to my formula.
For the Heartland, The chance is about 29% as well.

But other models show this as higher. Using an additional formula, the new chance is now 64%.

Will it play out? We'll have to wait and see.

Great Lakes GFS model 12/11

On December 11, the Long Range GFS is projecting a snow area to pop up in the Great Lakes into the far east Heartland.

How reliable is this?
Using my secret formula of prediction, the total comes out to 6% reliability. So it may not be too reliable.

Northwest Storm

So this is a graphic depicting a storm coming in through the Northwest. It looks like it could be a strong storm.
Models are showing the storm coming in by crawling on the West Coast.
The GFS is showing the storm weakening as it tracks along.
It is forecast to move along the Upper Midwest tracking into Canada.
However, it will suddenly explode as a squall line into the Lower Great Lakes.

However, the NAM is displaying the storm coming in a bit more south than the GFS and weakening quicker.

This is the only update on this storm system, with a possible RAINcast for the Southeast.

Your Thanksgiving Day Forecast