Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Moderate Risk Issued for Michigan

A short term moderate risk has been issued for Michigan as strong to severe thunderstorms fire in the region and move south.
Water vapor imagery clearly shows the sudden development of new strong thunderstorms, and the threat is expected to grow as the storms enter an area favorable for damaging winds.


Significant Damaging Wind Possible Tomorrow in Northeast

There is the potential for significant damaging wind tomorrow in the Northeast, leading the Storm Prediction Center to include a moderate risk for much of the area I outlined in pink.

The latest NAM model is projecting strong to severe thunderstorms to fire along an advancing cold front in the Northeast and Ohio Valley tomorrow. This cold front appears to ignite a long stretch of several strong to severe thunderstorm clusters along the mentioned regions. 850mb winds will be pushing 35 knots, signaling the atmosphere's willingness to get something going, particularly severe thunderstorms. Additionally, as much as 4000 j/kg of instability may be present to support the storms, which appear to want to fire in the afternoon hours into evening.

This situation is being closely monitored at The Weather Centre, and a Storm Action Day (SAD) is going to be called tomorrow.