Monday, July 9, 2012

East Pacific Alight With Tropical Activity

The Eastern Pacific is alight with tropical activity on this fine day, with two hurricanes spinning around and another disturbance in the picture.

Hurricane Daniel is shown to the east-southeast of Hawaii and looks very disorganized as it rapidly degrades into a post-tropical cyclone. Models say Hawaii is not at risk, but should stay on alert as the system passes to the south.

Hurricane Emilia is currently a Category 2 and is shown as a very defined hurricane to the southeast of Mexico. Emilia will most likely strengthen into Category 3 territory in a short time, and stay there for a while before weakening as movement to the northwest brings cooler waters and less conducive conditions for tropical activity.

There is also a jumble of disorganized activity to the east of Emilia, and this does indeed have a chance of some formation at a later time as the Madden-Julian Oscillation points to favorable tropical activity for the next few days.

For information on Daniel, click here: Link
For information on Emilia, click here: Link


Hurricane Daniel Very Disorganized; No Threat to Land

Hurricane Daniel is currently a Category 1 hurricane with a central pressure of 992 millibars and maximum winds of 75 MPH.

Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Daniel has collapsed in as weakening to a bare minimum Category 1 hurricane has occurred. Daniel is expected to continue to die out and eventually become post tropical as it passes south of Hawaii.

Ensemble forecast models indicate Daniel has the best chance of keeping south of Hawaii, but a few models insist Daniel poses a threat to Hawaii. I prefer to think that the system will keep south of Hawaii.


Hurricane Emilia Develops Eye; Expected to Strengthen

 Hurricane Emilia in the Eastern Pacific has developed a solid eye and eyewall and looks like a major hurricane. As of the latest National Hurricane Center update, Emilia is a Category 2 hurricane with a central pressure of 969 millibars.

At this time, the latest ensemble members have Emilia reaching Category 3 hurricane strength, which is qualifying for major hurricane status. Emilia is no threat to land and likely will not be for the rest of its life. Rapid weakening is expected following the major hurricane status declaration.