Monday, November 29, 2010

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Update #1

Okay. Here's the first update.

I just refreshed the GFS model.

So, in this new model image of upper air temps, we can see, compared to earlier forecasts, the GFS is pushing the outbreak farther around all angles of the country. So the GFS has dared to go this far instead of hanging pack in the past model run.

Another update tomorrow.


Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Part 2

This is the second update to the possible outbreak of arctic air in the MW/GL in 7 days.
I have updated this for more evidence. The GFS has put up images of the outbreak. The following is a series of images from the GFS.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL?!?!?

Yes, that's right folks! The ECMWF model has put out the fact that an arctic outbreak may occur this week in the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

This time period was in the 7 day range going into 8 day range. Yes I know, not very reliable.

The above picture is from the ECMWF model made in Europe. I clearly outlined the area where the MW/GL are may see some very cold air.

Below is the same general time period from the GFS.

So we can see the very cold Canadian air flowing in from the North. And some spotty lake effect showers by the Eastern GL.

I also analyzed another picture from the GFS about temps in the range that the first picture from the ECMWF model was indicating.

So the GFS gives us the same scoop about this.
So we have two major models predicting a very cold period to come in the next week.

I did check the ensembles, but they aren't particularly throwing that in. However, with two well known and reputable models versus several unheard of models, I believe that there is quite a chance that the GL/MW area could see an arctic outbreak in about 6 or 7 days.