Sunday, March 18, 2012

100 Models and Ensembles Reached!

We have officially reached 100 models and ensembles on our Weather Models page!
This does indeed call for something big. I have it figured out, and you will find out in a few days.

March Severe Weather Events Were Predicted (And How You can Predict Them Too)

Potential Jet Stream and Severe Weather Nodes (Made March 3)

Set-up predicted for March (prediction made March 3)

The severe weather that ravaged the country in the last couple weeks of March had been advised on earlier in the month.
In this post from March 3, I declared that there would be a risk for some severe weather outbreaks as the infamous Alaskan Vortex shifted into the Gulf of Alaska. Lo and behold, my predictions came through in the situations I had anticipated.

Now that these predictions have come through, I want to share this with you to give you some advice on how to know if your area could get hit with some severe weather.
The thing I look for in this situation was a deep low pressure in Alaska. If that is there, a ridge should form in the East US, storm systems will come onshore the West Coast, and the rest will follow.
While I could not have anticipated the exact timing and severity of the severe weather events, this is just something that I thought should be shared to give others an idea of when severe weather may hit the country.

Special TRIAD Run Downgrades Tornado Threat

The TRIAD Tornado Model has downgraded the tornado threat today to a red maximum, which means the TRIAD is expecting a few isolated tornadoes, with the potential for a strong tornado.
I realize that this is not the most ideal set-up for tornadoes, but I am surprised the Storm Prediction Center did not issue a moderate risk to be on the safe side. I have been watching shearing, wind convergence, helicity, instability throughout this event and have firmly believed that this would warrant a moderate risk area by the SPC. There remains the potential for them to issue a short-term moderate risk area in the next update today, but I can't say that is too likely at this time.

Some info on this special TRIAD model run:
Model(s) used: SPC SREF Ensembles.
Time run: 9:30 am central.
Confidence: 90%
Potential of upgrading to higher tornado threat: 40%
Potential of downgrading to lower tornado threat: 20%


Notices for March 18, 2012

•A Storm Action Day will remain in effect today, despite the lessened threat than anticipated.
•A Special run of the TRIAD Tornado Model will run at 11:00 AM central time.
•I am surprised that the Storm Prediction Center did not issue a moderate risk, and I believe that the tornado threat is being taken a tad too lightly.