Thursday, July 14, 2011

July 14: Tornado Warning (Tornado Indicated by Radar)- Worden, MT


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE COUNTY...

AT 509 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED...6 MILES EAST OF
WORDEN OVER I-94...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE
PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS. VEHICLES STOPPED UNDER BRIDGES BLOCK
TRAFFIC AND PREVENT PEOPLE FROM GETTING OUT OF THE STORM`S PATH AND
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CANNOT DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...GET OUT OF
YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE FLAT IN A DITCH AS A LAST RESORT.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

StormTrack: July 14: Remarkable Wind Velocities near Fromberg, MT

A storm is producing remarkable wind velocities near Fromberg, Montana.
Wind speeds as high as 50 knots towards the Billings, MT were recorded in the atmosphere.

2011-2012 Europe and Canada Winter Forecast WILL be released

The Weather Centre Team has decided to put in the effort for creating forecasts for the 2011-2012 winters in Canada and Europe.

Release dates are not known, but a general time frame is likely this Late July or Early August.

SEE THE TABS JUST UNDER THE BLOG IMAGE FOR THE 2011-2012 EUROPE WINTER FORECAST!

July 14: Mesoscale Discussion #1615

Words to know:
MLCAPE: A form of instability.
CINH: Atmospheric storm-suppressing warm air layer over the cool air.
Shear: Different directions and speeds in wind in the atmosphere layers.
MCS: Mesoscale (large area) Convective (storms) System. A large area of storms.
Low Level Jet (LLJ): A nocturnal, smaller jet stream area in lower atmosphere levels similar to the big jet stream.


A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF N-CNTRL CO WITH
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   STRONG INSOLATION IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH. THE
   N-CNTRL CO PROFILER IS INDICATING AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS POSING A
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD
   INTO THE PLAINS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS ESPECIALLY INTO SWRN NEB AS THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.

July 14: Special Weather Watch (East Montana)

From The Weather Centre's Mobile StormTrack Team
The Weather Centre has issued a Special Weather Watch
for East Montana

At 2:26 PM... A warm front is pushing through Montana. This warm front will provide the instability for convection to initiate after the front moves through.
Below the front, temperatures are already into the mid 80's, while areas above the front remain in the 70's.

This watch is specifically designed to address the front moving north and not to address storms later tonight.

People outlined in this watch should keep up to date with the latest weather information.

This watch will expire around 5:00 PM. At that point, another watch will be issued for the storms themselves. 

July 14 Severe Weather Discussion (Conditional Storm Action Day Declared)

A slight risk of severe weather is in effect for the North Plains into Nebraska and northeast Colorado.

A Conditional Storm Action Day has been declared today. This is because The Weather Centre believes probabilities of tornadoes, hail and winds combined are high enough that it warrants a Conditional Storm Action Day (CSAD).

Hail Probabilities

Tornado Probabilities

Wind Probabilities