Sunday, January 23, 2011

Weather Explained: Why Storms get Stronger on the East Coast

Storms get stronger on the East Coast because of the moisture in the Atlantic Ocean.
The moisture is open and feeding into the storm system, and the storm openly strengthens.

Forecast for the next 7 days (To January 30th)

Over the next 7 days, I do expect a cooling trend to begin in the Southeast/South Central US region.
At the same time, I predict a the West Coast and the Rockies to become under a warming trend. The Plains and Midwest back through the Ohio Valley, along with the southern sections of the East Coast will likely be influenced by this sudden colder air mass in place over the South US, so slightly cooler temperatures can prevail.
Nowhere near as cold as what was experienced this week.
More pressing is the potential for a major winter storm on the East Coast back through areas of the Southeast.
While this should be a rain event, Tennessee, Kentucky, and areas around those locations should see more of a snow event.
While most accumulations are preliminary, it should be safe to say that at least 1-2'' is in the realm of possibilities.

Temperatures may dive this week in the South.

HPC anomaly (variation of something) is indicating a drop in temperatures across the South in the upcoming week.
The below image is the maximum of how much temperatures will vary from average over the next week or so.
This is, as a summary, an exaggeration of how much temperatures could be above or below from the average.
We see the entire East US covered in some sort of below normal expected temperatures.
Below is the minimum of what temperatures could change from average over the next week.
Much of the cooler temperature areas have dissipated, even replaced, with above normal temperatures.
Remember, these are estimates, and this is the minimum of what they could change.
For best estimates, combine the two maximum/minimum graphs.
For the above graph, we can see, still, that below normal temperatures are evident across the Southeast.

Combined, it would be a very good guess for temperatures to take a dip throughout the South.

Northeast, South may be hit again with a storm.

The Northeast is indeed under fire for the potential of a winter storm. In this in-depth analysis, we will review the latest data and what temperatures may be to determine precipitation type.

Above is the image for 3 days from now. We can see a low pressure deepening as it moves from the Southeast to the East Coast and begins to slide up the coast.
This does provide some interest for a potential South winter storm, so we will take a look at forecast weather from the NWS.
The above image is Tuesday morning. We see that much of the South will be much engulfed in rain. Areas in Tennessee will be mixed with snow and icy conditions may come together.
Above, 24 hours later, the storm begins to deepen and strengthen and move off the Southeast coast, rain will pretty much dominate the South. Snow will spread over the Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia areas.
Below is the storm as it moves along the East Coast. By now it is very strong, pulling moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. The question is also here about what form of precipitation this will be for the Northeast.
Looking at charts that cannot be posted on here, it appears that precipitation will be a mix only RIGHT on the coast, with heavy snow in areas elsewhere, including New York City.

February Long-Range Forecast Posted

The February Long-Range Forecast is about to be posted, and it does have some changes!
Find it on the Long Range forecast page.