|Tomorrow's Forecast Severe Weather Risk (May 11)|
It is possible that the earliest these storms develop could be in mid-morning. I do believe that is possible, but instability may need a boost and may have a better chance for late morning.
Deep layer shear will increase going into the day, signifying a tornado threat.
There is the risk for early, lesser convection which would delay the strongest storms and possibly lower the risk altogether. Cloud cover by itself could also do this.
The second round of storms is possible midday into late afternoon. The watch zone for worst weather appears to be in the Kansas portion of the moderate risk. Supercells are once again possible, and I believe the tornado risk is more increased than in the morning. However, there is uncertainty about early cloud cover and if that may contribute to a lower severe weather threat.
|Probability of any type of severe weather.|