Sunday, June 10, 2012

Incredible Florida Rains Continuing Today

Radar indications of rainfall totals indicate that up to 20 inches of rain has fallen just to the southwest of Pensacola, Florida. Myrtle Grove and Warrington, Florida are in the middle of this intense rainfall.

Latest water vapor and frontal analysis indicate that two troughs are producing vast amounts of water vapor over the Gulf of Mexico that is moving north-northeast onshore to areas that are already operating WAY over capacity. The low pressure system associated with this rain is pretty concerning. While some dry air is pushing east, indicating some relief may be on the way, any more rain from now on will only do a lot more harm than help.


Tropical Storm Potential Rising in East Pacific

The National Hurricane Center has put a center of low pressure in the East Pacific at a 60% chance for tropical cyclone formation. This comes as upper level and lower level winds are not strong enough to disprove the potential for formation. Clouds are beginning to take on a swirling characteristic, indicating that a center of lower pressure may have taken hold inside the invest.
Model guidance indicates that this system will be moving west with time, and steadily strengthening to the point that it may take over 5 days to reach hurricane status.

I will continue watching this system and issue an update if it happens to form into a cyclone today.

Severe Weather Hits Plains This Afternoon

There is a slight risk of severe weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest regions into western portions of the Midwest and central Plains.

Severe weather will ignite across the areas mentioned above as a cold front hits strong instability in the area. 0z model guidance indicates that storms will be quickly advancing in a north-northeast fashion, not really aligned in a squall-line, but resembling something of the sort. If these storms were to stay as individual cells, the risk of tornadoes would be present across northern portions of the risk area, where the threat is greatest.
At the time of typing, instability was already into the 1000-2000 j/kg levels, with a capping inversion of 0-250 j/kg of stability present. There are some messy clouds in Minnesota, but Wisconsin is currently in the midst of a nice, clear morning, which should help to heat and destabilize the atmosphere further than in Minnesota. 925mb and 850mb analyses indicates strong lower level winds, which will help to push thunderstorms along when they form this afternoon. As of now, a strong area of surface vorticity is moving east into Minnesota, where the vorticity values will strengthen. These strengthening vorticity values will enhance the potential for rotation in the Minnesota region for the afternoon, and eventually reaching Wisconsin in the evening hours.