Sunday, June 5, 2011

June 5- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 40% chance for tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
A system located off the west coast of Central America and to the south of Mexico has become better defined overnight. Conditions are favorable for gradual development, possibly into a tropical depression over the next several days.
The track for this system is in a somewhat general consensus that it will probably go out to sea. A couple of models do take this system into Mexico, which actually could be devastating as you'll see in the intensity forecasts. A band of models (the red line, turquoise, pink lines) seem to hold the best solution. That solution takes the storm out to sea. However, it will undoubtedly change as we progress.
Right off the bat, one would see a very good consensus in the way of strength forecasts of this storm. However, if you look closer, those 3 models with different shades of blue are actually the same model. They all originate from the same model and are ensembles inside an ensemble. Thus, it is logical to take out two of those blue lines to not confuse anyone. Other than the blue lines, there is a consensus taking the storm into a Category 1 hurricane status.

We will watch this system very closely and issue updates as needed.

June 5- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development off the coast of Central America.
Thunderstorms have increased and organization has become more evident within this system, more in the eastern section of this surface system. It does appear that the dry air pumping into the low has stopped mostly, as clouds have surrounded the area around the low, evident of warm air in place instead of the dry air.
The storm's tracks have really been the same for in the way of a couple of consensus'. One of those agreements (and the most predominant) is having the low being thrown out to sea, away from land. there are also 2 smaller consensus', one of which slams into Florida, and another agreement that takes the low into the Gulf of Mexico.
Intensity forecasts aren't too impressive but have evolved into two solutions. One solution is for the system to remain below tropical cyclone status. The other solution is a tropical storm to occur.

As of now, it looks like this storm may become a tropical depression and could really go between Texas and out into the Atlantic Ocean. We will have a more definitive track as we progress into this storm.