Today's Featured Posts: January 31-February 2 Potentially Significant Winter Storm and Long Range Outlook (Made January 28, 2015)
Friday, December 30, 2011
|Hour 90 of 12z GFS|
|Hour 42 of 12z GFS|
|Hour 48 of 12z GFS|
There are two sides to this storm: precipitation and temperatures. Here's 850mb temperatures from the ECMWF.
|Hour 48 of ECMWF|
|Hour 72 of ECMWF|
|Hour 96 of ECMWF|
|PrecipCAST from intellicast.com|
Time valid for 10:00 PM EST
|Map is not interactive|
But let's say that this disruption does happen. Well, what would happen to the all-important NAO?
|OLD 0z ECMWF|
The NAO has been wildly swinging. With stronger systems bringing stronger positive NAO values, this means the potential for lower NAO values, going off of Newton's laws: With every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. If we use that law, it can be determined that a strong +NAO value will eventually lead into a strong -NAO sometime this winter.
Pre note: Confidence is low on these predictions. It is entirely possible that these snowstorms will not happen. In other words, don't hold me to these.
January 6-11: An active period is already setting up that should lead into the first couple weeks of January, if not longer. Among those possibly affected include the North Plains and the Northeast.
January 14-18: A couple shots of low pressure systems into the Southwest could make for a good snow somewhere in the Plains or Midwest.
LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS---
A quick start to January will continue as the deep low pressure system over Alaska weakens as the ridge interrupts the polar vortex in the early new year. Late January may bring a deep chill to much of the country as the Arctic Oscillation dips far enough into negative territory to unleash pure Arctic air. Using Newton's Laws mentioned above, we can expect a BIG snowstorm for the Northeast sometime this winter when the NAO goes negative in response to a very positive NAO so far this winter.