Today's Featured Post: Updated Long Range Outlook Will be Issued Wednesday at 4:30 PM Central Time.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Update: Special Weather Watch: April 15

(Previous Watch Below)

Broadcast Level: URGENT
From The Weather Centre Headquarters
3:56pm CDT, April 15, 2011

This is a Special Weather Watch.
Issued April 15, 2011.

This Special Weather Watch has been issued for:
-Alabama
-Mississippi

At 3:56pm CDT... Radar detected blossoming supercells capable of producing tornadoes.
These storms will rake the entire portion of the area mentioned in this watch well into the night.

Threat Levels Index:
Tornadoes: HIGH
Violent Tornadoes: POSSIBLE
Hail: HIGH
Large Hail: HIGH
Damaging Winds: HIGH

This watch will expire at 11:59 pm CDT tonight.

UPDATE- 11:09pm CDT
The watch will now expire at 3 am CDT.

April 15: Tornado Watch #7


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   745 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
          THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
          EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
   UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
   GRANGE GEORGIA TO 20 MILES EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 141. WATCH NUMBER 141 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   745 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...
   
   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SE MS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE
   MS VALLEY MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WEAK-MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS
   AREA...AND THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL EXPAND EWD TONIGHT AS THE
   LOW LEVELS MOISTEN FARTHER E INTO SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  A
   STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN A MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 500 M2/S2.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

April 15 Snowstorm Totals


...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM CDT THU APR
14 THROUGH 400 PM CDT FRI APR 15...

...NORTH DAKOTA...
FLASHER                              10.5                     
WISHEK                               10.0                     
GLEN ULLIN                            9.8                     
BRADDOCK 5 SE                         9.0                     
FESSENDEN 7 SE                        8.0                     
BISMARCK 10 N                         7.6                     
HAZELTON 4 NW                         7.4                     
HAZEN 0.4 SW                          7.0                     
LEITH                                 7.0                     
SYKESTON                              7.0                     
BOWDON 1 E                            6.5                     
NAPOLEON                              6.5                     

...NEBRASKA...
PAXTON                               16.0                     
KINGSLEY DAM                         10.2                     
IMPERIAL                             10.0                     
VALENTINE 29 S                       10.0                     
KILGORE                               9.1                     
NORTH PLATTE 8 WNW                    9.0                     
VALENTINE                             9.0                     
WALLACE 2 W                           7.0                     
OSHKOSH 10 NE                         6.5                     

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
ISABEL 14 N                          13.0                     
KADOKA 14 SSE                        12.0                     
MARTIN 19.6 ENE                      12.0                     
HAYES 6 E                            11.0                     
PORCUPINE 5 E                        10.0                     
MCINTOSH 8.7 WSW                      9.7                     
HIGHMORE 19.1 NNW                     8.5                     
SAINT FRANCIS 8 ESE                   6.5 

April 15: Tornado Watch #6


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   545 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 545 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   ATLANTA GEORGIA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA GRANGE GEORGIA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...WW 142...WW
   143...WW 144...
   
   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT ACROSS N GA...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE INCREASING SLOWLY
   JUST W OF THE ERN AL/GA BORDER.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50-LOWER 60S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SBCAPE OF AT LEAST
   500-1000 J/KG...WHILE THE ATLANTA VWP SHOWS A WIND PROFILE CONDUCIVE
   TO SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Introducing Hazards Posts 2.0

You may have seen the debut of our new Special Weather Watch this evening (Click here)

Now, we are debuting a whole system of those.

Similar to the NWS/SPC watches and warnings, a post is issued whenever there is a weather situation.
Below are BETA names for these new posts.

For tornado-related posts:
-Tornadic Condition Advisory/Watch/Warning

For severe thunderstorm-related posts:
-Elevated Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning

For minor posts (such as light rain or gusty winds):
-Minor Weather Advisory/Watch

For winter weather-related posts:
-Wintry Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning

For other types of posts (Stormy seas, flooding, high winds):
-Special Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning

Special Weather Watch: April 15

Broadcast Level: URGENT
From The Weather Centre Headquarters
3:56pm CDT, April 15, 2011

This is a Special Weather Watch.
Issued April 15, 2011.

This Special Weather Watch has been issued for:
-Alabama
-Mississippi

At 3:56pm CDT... Radar detected blossoming supercells capable of producing tornadoes.
These storms will rake the entire portion of the area mentioned in this watch well into the night.

Threat Levels Index:
Tornadoes: HIGH
Violent Tornadoes: POSSIBLE
Hail: HIGH
Large Hail: HIGH
Damaging Winds: HIGH


This watch will expire at 11:59 pm CDT tonight.

April 15: Tornado Watch #5


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   240 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE
   LOUISIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 140...WW 141...WW
   142...WW 143...
   
   DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE AL BORDER WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE FROM WRN MS INTO CNTRL LA.  AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR
   MASS IS WARM AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT GREATEST SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST FROM JUST E OF JAN TO MEI WHERE AMBIENT
   STREAMWISE VORTICITY IS BEING AUGMENTED BY A DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2 WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

Severe Storms Developing in South and Central IL

(For more information, see Tornado Watch #3)

Severe thunderstorms are developing along an occluded front as expected.
The storms will spin north and dissipate into bands of heavy rain as they reach North IL.
However, a tornado watch is in effect.
Click on the link above for more information.

April 15: Tornado Watch #4


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   210 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
   PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 140...WW 141...WW 142...
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS DEEP ASCENT IN EXIT
   REGION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVES INTO THE REGION. 
   THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   OF 55-60 F AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
   AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500
   J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND
   PROFILES...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES WILL A RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

April 15: Tornado Watch #3


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          EASTERN MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
   900 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO 70 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 140...WW 141...
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD
   FRONT AND WITHIN DRY SLOT OF INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. 
   DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -20 C WILL RESULT IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  WHEN
   COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL FAVOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

April 15: Tornado Watch #2


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
          SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 900
   PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF MONTGOMERY
   ALABAMA TO 145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 140...
   
   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MS/SWRN AL ARE EXPECTED
   TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WW AREA WITHIN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  HERE...THE COMBINATION OF
   DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S AND DIABATIC HEATING IN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
   1000-2000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/
   WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF TORNADOES /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...LARGE HAIL APPROACHING 2.0-2.5
   INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

April 15: Tornado Watch #1


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   735 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 735 AM UNTIL 300
   PM CDT.
   
   NUMEROUS TORNADOES
   ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF MUSCLE
   SHOALS ALABAMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 139...
   
   DISCUSSION...NE-SW MS/LA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  SYSTEM MAY BREAK INTO MORE SEMI-DISCRETE
   STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM IN
   CONFLUENT/MOISTENING LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE...AS SFC HEATING
   FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION.  12Z KJAN SOUNDING AND UPSTREAM WIND
   PROFILES SUGGEST WW AREA WILL HAVE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS.  THESE MAY
   YIELD A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND HAIL.
   STORMS IN NRN AL MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLD
   TORNADOES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

April 15 Severe Weather Outbreak

Once again, today we will be dealing with a severe weather outbreak.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Southeast in a moderate risk for severe storms.
Below is today's overall risk.
As we can see, there is a moderate risk over the following areas:
-Much of Mississippi
-Much of Alabama

There is also a slight risk for severe weather over the following areas:
-Southern 2/3 of Illinois
-South Indiana
-Much of Kentucky
-Southeast Missouri
-Extreme East Arkansas
-Much of Tennessee
-Much of Georgia
-East half of Louisiana
-Florida Panhandle
-Western North Carolina
-Western South Carolina

Below is today's tornado risk.
It does appear that the threat for tornadoes prompted this moderate risk area to be issued.
That said, it can be expected at least a local tornado outbreak will occur.
Next is the threat for large hail.
There is an elevated risk in most of the moderate area up north, but the hail risk did not warrant the moderate risk area.
Next and last image is the high wind risk.
There is a 30% chance of damaging winds in the moderate risk area. However, 45% chance of damaging winds is needed for a moderate risk of severe weather.

In summary, a tornado outbreak is growing more concerning in the Southeast.