|Confidence: FINAL FORECAST|
However, while I did use the normal model blend for this TRIAD model run, I mixed in the SPC SREF, which is falling into line with the regular models that are used with the TRIAD model.
As the strong storm system ejects eastward, I expect the dry line to be the focus of severe storm development tomorrow. This dryline should be positioned somewhere in west TX/OK/KS. The dry line will be crucial in this situation, as converging winds will likely get the updrafts going when instability values begin to increase over the dry line. As instability increases, updrafts should begin to form and, judging by forecast hodographs and wind shearing, a couple of these updrafts should have the capability to develop some rotation within these updrafts.
As a screaming jet stream with speeds of 100 knots+ moves over these developing updrafts, it will only increase the level of deep layer shear, also increasing the tornado threat and shifting it south and east with time. I expect to see some tornado touchdowns tomorrow, most likely in the central portions of Texas. I find it entirely possible that some tornadic action could develop farther west in Texas than what is currently progged, but due to the uncertainty of the dry line's position and slight uncertainties in the strongest instabilities in that region, I discouraged the TRIAD from stretching the threat too far west.