Monday, September 26, 2011


We will be focusing our attention on the Weather Models page in upcoming days.

Portions of Northeast in for a Soaker Tonight

Pennsylvania, Ohio and similar states will be in the target range for a very wet night in accordance with a nearly stationary low pressure system in the Illinois region. As a cold front spun up showers and storms this morning, the front will continue moving to the northeast. Even right now, strong showers and storms are in the area designated as a threat for potentially flooding rainfall. Here's the forecast QPF (rainfall totals) for the next several hours in Figure 1, as well as the Heavy Rainfall Threat graphic for the same time frame in Figure 2.

Figure 1- Forecast rainfall for the next several hours

Figure 2- Heavy Rainfall threat graphic

Ohio/pennsylvaia watch out in next 2 days for flooding risk. Forecast rain today, tomorrow
We are watching the potential for heavy rainfall as well in the next coming days.
The low in illinois continues to produce heavy showers and storms in NW IL. The showers may dissipate later today, and we will watch for that.

Low Pressure System in Illinois makes Cold Front in Kentucky (Early Morning Overview)

A low pressure system stationed over Illinois/Iowa will continue to produce showers and embedded thunderstorms in the center of the low as well as a front moving east into the Eastern Seaboard. Below is a current surface analysis map of the storm and cold front.
The low will wobble to the west and east in the next few days before finally being pushed off to the east, providing a day or two of partly sunny conditions over the Midwest/Great Lakes before another low is forecast to move in to the same area. There is a lot of rain occurring in association with this system right now, and below is current radar imagery of the US.
Moderate rain is falling in Wisconsin, Illinois into Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee, with some more scattered showers in between. The cold front has even prompted a tornado watch to be issued for East Kentucky as well as South Ohio. Below is the region outlined for this watch.
This watch is valid until 12:00 PM CDT/1:00 PM EDT. It appear this watch was issued due to the potential strengthening of this front moving through. While the only immediate 'danger' looks to be a small line of embedded cells, the SPC believes it will strengthen. There are embedded mesocyclones, or spinning in the clouds, as well as high values of SRH (spinning in the atmosphere). Added forcing upwards of air (what the name says it is) increases the overall risk of tornadoes.