Friday, January 27, 2012

February 3 Possible Severe Weather

The GFS Model is predicting some heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast. The way the heavy precipitation (in red) is shown makes me think that this could be a MCS (mesoscale convective system) that could spawn some intense thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds.
Confidence remains low, but we will closely watch this situation.

February 4 Possible Snowfall

The GEM model is showing snow on February 4th for the Ohio Valley. While it may seem heavy, we have equated 15mm out to about half an inch of liquid, which would equate to 5 inches of snow.. However, seeing just how massive and huge this storm is, I would not dispute the GEM showing a higher amount than is shown.
My confidence is very low, and this is only just a mention of a possible snowfall.
Questions may be asked in comments.

Stratospheric Warming Update: Grim Outlook

1mb level temperatures
Recent stratosphere prognosis is a grim one upon observation of recent stratospheric temperatures. Image above displays 1mb temperatures. Looking at this image, it is apparent that significant cooling in the stratosphere has occurred, even leading to the erase of this winter's previous sudden stratospheric warming. This is only a small slice of the cake. . .as the 1mb level is just the top of the stratosphere. There remains a lot to look over.
70mb Temperatures
70mb temperatures show signs of encouragement, as the big thing about stratospheric warming is to try to get it as close to the surface as possible. At this time. . .we are seeing a warming event come over the 70mb level in the stratosphere. I do anticipate it to peak in the next week. . .and possibly see some cooling as the cooler anomalies in the upper levels of the stratosphere may try to propagate down into the lower levels.
Analysis of temperature anomalies by heights
The cooler air anomalies are shown well in the zonal analysis, with -12≥ temperature anomalies being found from 1mb down through the 5mb level. Do not be deceived. . .as we have found cooling to still be occurring down to the 50mb level. . .leaving only the 70mb level to be the last sign of encouragement in the current stratospheric analysis.

My Thoughts
I expect cooling to continue from the 1mb level into the 50mb levels, which are currently experiencing cooling, and possibly propagate down to the 70mb level. Seeing the peak of the current warming in the 70mb level coming on soon, I would not be surprised to find a cooling trend put a dent in the recent warming at that level.
As a consequence from all this cooling. . .my winter outlook is grim. This warming will not come soon enough to provide any pattern change in February. The best I am hoping for is cold shots following storms. I still am expecting snowstorms to occur, but not with the cold that would typically be in place. Therefore. . .I believe ice storm risks are increased.
I will have a February-March outlook out tomorrow at 12:00 PM CST. For those banking on my colder and snowier outlook. . .new day, new outlook. . .

Upcoming Forecasts in the next Few Months

Stratosphere update delayed until 5:00 PM CDT

We sincerely apologize.

Stratospheric Warming Update Today

We will update at 4:00 PM CST on the recent stratospheric cooling and possible warming.