Thursday, December 2, 2010

Potential Snowstorm Lower GL Update #3 Part 3

This is the third part of the likely snowstorm for the lower GL.
Below is the table of contents.
1. Additional Images from NWS
2. Model Runs
3. Recap

1. Additional Images from NWS

2. Model Runs (courtesy of NCEP and NEXLAB and e-WALL)

The WRF says that the storm will come in just a tad weaker, but still stick around the Chicago/Milwaukee area for a while, still enough to produce very nice accumulations.

The GFS reports the same thing as the WRF. Very very similar.

The UKMET puts some more strength and organization into the storm.

The CMC shows the storm entering the Illinois area a bit south from Rockford, but still putting in some good snow totals.

WRF vs. AVN----
The AVN shows the storm coming in quicker than the WRF. But they both show the storm putting out good totals.

12-ensemble run----
12 out of 12 ensembles show precipitation occurring from the clipper.
11 of the ensembles show snow occurring.
1 of the ensembles show rain or ice occurring.

Conclusion- Snow will occur, with probably 5 or 6 inches.

Potential Snowstorm Lower GL Update #3 Part 2

This is part two of the Possible snowstorm.
Below is a table of contents.
The rest will be published in Part 3

1. HPC Forecasts

1. The following are images from the HPC. To see what they are, read the title.

Potential Snowstorm Lower G; Update #2

This is the second update to the winter storm coming for the Lower GreatLakes.
Because the pictures I post may be so large, I will have to do more mini updates.

Anyways, there is a winter storm watch for the areas that will be the most impacted by this storm. The below image is forecast tracks for this storm.

That winter weather watch is in the dark blue in the above image. The following areas are in this watch: NW IL, SE WI, NE IA, S MN, NE ND, EXTREME SE SD. Those areas are predicted to receive, at the most, 6 inches.
While this storm still is only a day or two away, meteorologists are uneasy about putting out exact totals for areas. (Image by NWS)
The below images are from the HPC on their thoughts of the accumulation. The more inside a ring you are, the better chance of you receiving 4 INCHES OR MORE out of this storm.

In the image below, the same factor with the rings apply for 8 INCHES OR MORE.
The red ring is at least 70% chance
The Green ring is at least 40% chance
The blue ring is at least 10%.

So let's run some models.
The GFS shows the main edge hitting Rockford, but then piling onto Chicago, just like yesterday. Then they show some lake effect snow in the area.
Since the forecast hasn't changed very much, I'm going to use a reliable-unreliable count. Count is 1-0.

The WRF shows the main intensity hitting Rockford, but then using the rest of its energy on the Chicago area, leaving behind a more noticable lake effect area in Chicago. Count 2-0

The UKMET says that the clipper will strike Chicago as weak. It said the same thing last night. However, with evidence against it, the count is now 2-1.

The CMC model says that the clipper will strike Rockford first, but then use the remainder of its energy on the rest of the N. Illinois area.

The Navy NOGAPS model says that the system will strike just east of Rockford but still come into Chicago.

Updates later.